This weekend is as close to high-level, elite-tier rugby as you can get outside of a World Cup. Win, and we will have achieved something that nobody in the professional era has managed – a series win in New Zealand. The scale of even beating New Zealand twice in a row in New Zealand defies belief. They last lost two games at home in a row in 1998. To be clear, the last time New Zealand were beaten twice in a row at home, people were walking about listening to “My Heart Will Go On” as a new song on their Sony Discman thinking “wow, what a great song from that new movie Titanic” before walking to Xtravision to return a VHS they rented with the most intense coinage of all time, the Irish punt.
That was 24 years ago.
Winning twice in a row in New Zealand, and winning a series against New Zealand in New Zealand are very rare achievements to the point that fewer teams have won a World Cup than have done both. That is what awaits Ireland this Saturday in Wellington.
History. More of it.
It is, essentially, a knock-out game. All series deciders are, ultimately. So do we have the mental toughness to finish the job and put away a New Zealand side on a historically bad run? We’ll see on Saturday.
The main question I have is whether the All Blacks know why they lost the second test or how Ireland lost the first? This final test will be a defining test for Ian Foster, his coaching and his team’s ability to analyse and adapt. That takes a level of self-awareness of your shortcomings that seems to elude the All Blacks in their current guise. Can they effectively use a three-lock pack in a scenario where Ireland don’t gift them three scores? Can they adjust to Ireland’s test two defensive adjustments that de-powered Aaron Smith’s wide passing game off the ruck?
If they can, this game will be close, very close.
Either way, the last three years of covid that trapped the All Blacks in the Tasman bubble seem to have made them isolated and weird. They seem hyper-focused on the NRL – the same trap Australia fell into before they faded to a side everyone would be confident of beating home or away – because it draws ratings and big crowds in the Trans-Tasman bubble relative to dry, dead-on-arrival Super Rugby Pacific. Everything from the degradation of their forward play to the reckless pushing of the stone mad, bankrupt your union for #Boomfa Instagram likes in a decade 20-minute red card trial shows you where New Zealand is at right now – an intellectual and tactical crossroads.
A rugby nation raging about how the game should be played in newspaper columns while the game on the field leaves them behind is a rugby nation that is weak. We must punish this weakness.
I have no doubt the All Blacks will break out of the funk eventually – it could even be this weekend – but right now, this week, Ireland will never have a better chance to do something that will be remembered for decades to come.
New Zealand: 15. Jordie Barrett, 14. Will Jordan, 13. Rieko Ioane, 12. David Havili, 11. Sevu Reece, 10. Beauden Barrett, 9. Aaron Smith, 1. George Bower, 2. Codie Taylor, 3. Nepo Lualala, 4. Brodie Retallick, 5. Sam Whitelock, 6. Scott Barrett, 7. Sam Cane (c), 8. Ardie Savea
Replacements: 16. Dane Coles, 17. Aidan Ross, 18. Ofa Tu’ungafasi, 19. Akira Ioane, 20. Dalton Papalii, 21. Folau Fakatava, 22. Richie Mo’unga, 23. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
The adjustment to the adjustment always fascinates me in multi-game series.
In the NBA, mid-series adjustments are a key part of the drama between two teams across multiple games. The opposition shows you something, you turn it inside out and then try to take it away from them in the next game. Then they try to do the same to you.
Ireland’s defensive adjustment in the second test combined with a lower error rate effectively nullified the All Blacks’ attacking game. That, combined even further with early scoreboard control, allowed Ireland to dictate the sequence of the game to the All Blacks who then subsequently imploded with 15 minutes of reckless indiscipline that holed any attempt at a comeback below the waterline once Ireland moved two scores ahead early in the second half.
Theorizing that we should start well is redundant – of course we should – but there is a high premium on dominating the ball early against the All Blacks, scoring inside the first 10 minutes and then using that as a “wedge” against their counter-transition game.
We want to stop the All Blacks from kicking proactively so we need to stress their possession. We did that well in the second test by dominating the ball early, scoring efficiently and then transitioning to an effective off-ball game. We did this really well at the start of both halves. The counter-transition set that Ireland executed inside the first five minutes is some of the sharpest work on-ball you’ll see anywhere this year.
When Ireland talk about the importance of cohesion to what Farrell wants to be executed onfield, it’s clips like this that he’s talking about. If Ireland can force those moments and execute phases like this, we will score tries against this All Blacks defence. And literally, against anyone else who can’t get big physical stops against us off #9.
From an adjustment perspective, what would the All Blacks have seen last weekend that might inform their selection and tactics this weekend?
The return of Will Jordan to the All Blacks backfield is a key selection, in my eyes. Yellow card aside, Leicester Fainga’anunku really struggled to impact the game on transition for the All Blacks – he might be better suited to a third midfielder-style role, to be honest. Will Jordan, on the other hand, is one of the most talented counter-attacking runners in the game so adding him as a receipt option for the All Blacks off long Irish exits immediately creates a threat that Ireland will struggle to contain. I think the All Blacks will look to keep Jordan tied to the same wing as James Lowe on these transition opportunities to generate a one-on-one with maybe two passes to get him there if Ireland target Reece on the other wing – as we often did last week.
Selecting Jordan at fullback would, in theory, make sense but it’s not the bouncing balls down the middle of the field that are high percentage chances for the All Blacks – it’s the clean takes on Reece’s wing that either of the Barrett brothers can sling across the field to Jordan on the other wing.
Lowe, in particular, would seem to be a key target for the All Blacks here, especially off our long counter-transition starters. The inclusion of David Havili ahead of Quinn Tupea is a move to a more creative option in midfield outside Barrett. Tupea hasn’t impressed as a ball-carrying threat in the last two games and, hasn’t been able to move the ball with any regularity or creativity. Havili will give the All Blacks more width through the pass in the second layer and another kicking option, albeit with the risk of being targeted off the scrum and lineout.
It’s a risk they feel they probably have to take, especially if this test plays out like the first test. David Havili and Will Jordan starting in the same backline is a linked decision and they’ll be hoping that both of these players can boost their own effectiveness on counter-transition, with Lowe and Henshaw as key targets for them on the move and at depth.
To me, this is a clear move by the All Blacks to use Ireland’s kicking tendencies and counter-attack platform as a mechanism to generate the opportunities they feel can win the third test for them. We’ll see how effective it is.
