I don’t believe in bogey teams but, if I did, Cardiff would be mine.
For me, Dai Young’s squad are one of the most underrated sides in the United Rugby Championship this season. But, at the same time, I can’t think of a side that has so dramatically underperformed relative to their ability either. A lot of that sense of underperformance comes from their desperately poor away record – worse than Zebre, even – and some fluctuating displays at home. You might point at Cardiff losing their last two home games to the Scarlets and the Ospreys and four of the last five games overall as proof that they’re, well, a bit rubbish but I’ll point at their impressive wins over Glasgow and Leinster in the last few months as a counterpoint. I genuinely believe that Cardiff are a dangerous opponent when they are in the right frame of mind and, from their perspective, the problem has been getting into that headspace consistently.
Their Director of Rugby Dai Young is plainly in the middle of a rebuild at Cardiff, something that has been made more difficult by COVID extended contracts. In simple terms, a lot of the guys Young had intended to shuffle off his books this season had their deals extended during the lockdown season with a pay cut. That was a halfway house that gave solidity to players and club during a really uncertain time but it also means that now you’ve got a situation where you have a lot of players who are underpaid and who are aware that they are on borrowed time.
I’m not inferring any of this. This isn’t a theory. Dai Young has literally spoken about this publicly where he laid out his thinking in pretty stark terms after a series of bad losses. The quotes are worth looking at.
“My job is to try and get the best out of the squad. I don’t think we’re achieving that yet but what I’ve said to them is that I’ve come here wanting to help players get better, but they’ve got to want to get better as well. Certainly, the last 12 months have been trying to raise the bar and trying to improve players. Some have certainly got behind it and some still need a bit of convincing.
“What we’ve said to the players is that they’ve got opportunities over the next six months to keep on convincing me that they should be a part of the plan moving forward. We haven’t been higher than seventh in 10 years.
“They know they’ve got an opportunity to show that they’re good enough. At the end of the day, it’s pretty simple, you work hard to try to change mindsets and convince people but there comes a time where if you can’t influence mindsets and if you can’t bring change, then you have to change them [players].
“Most of this squad have been here for over four years and we’ve not achieved anything in four years. Up until now, it’s been six coaches in 10 years and [the powers that be] wheel the coaches out all the time.”
That’s about as candid as you can get in this game without literally talking about who’s on your cut list. While that level of candour is commendable, in a way, it also leaves you with nowhere to go as the season progresses from a rhetorical standpoint. When you go on a bad run the DOR or head coach will sometimes have to get fairly… uh, hectic when it comes to the messaging they use around the squad. Essentially, when you ask the group “where their f*$king pride is” and they go out and lose again regardless, you’re left in a difficult spot.
Cardiff have lost every game since and, just as a matter of interest, they lost the game directly after these comments 49-14. At home.
But don’t mistake that bad run and the noise around the club for a team that has already accepted defeat on their way to Cork this week. They are the proverbial low handing door frame for Munster as we stride towards a Heineken Cup quarter-final against Toulouse. If we’re not careful, we could easily bang our collective heads and find ourselves in sixth by the time Monday rolls around. Talk about a headache.
If we want to nail down a playoff spot and, possibly, a home quarter-final, it has to be a win and, preferably, a bonus-point win in Cork. It might not feel like it but this is a pivotal game.
There’s a lot of those over the last few weeks. And more to come.
Cardiff Rugby: 15. Hallam Amos, 14. Owen Lane, 13. Rey Lee-Lo, 12. Max Llewellyn, 11. Theo Cabango; 10. Jarrod Evans, 9 Lloyd Williams; 1. Rhys Carré, 2. Kristian Dacey, 3. Dillon Lewis, 4. Seb Davies, 5. Rory Thornton, 6. James Botham, 7. Josh Navidi (c), 8. James Ratti
Replacements: 16. Kirby Myhill, 17. Brad Thyer, 18. Keiron Assiratti, 19. Matthew Screech, 20. Ellis Jenkins, 21. Jamie Hill, 22. Rhys Priestland, 23. Garyn Smith
Cardiff are one of the biggest on-ball, possession dominant teams in the URC. When they kick anywhere outside of regular exits – which they usually try to make contestable regardless of the context – they usually kick at quite shallow angles from within the 1-3-3-1 structure for the likes of Lee-Lo, Lane and others to attack at pace. They don’t kick very often but when they do, they kick short and are really good at retaining those kicks beyond the gainline.
One of Cardiff’s main issues this season has been progressing the ball up the field with the ball in hand, especially through the forwards. Their key ball carriers are almost all in the backs – Lee-Lo, Lane, Amos – and this limits Cardiff’s ability to make their 1-3-3-1 shape flow as effectively as it could. They offload quite a bit, relatively speaking, but they’ve had issues converting those and have lost a lot of turnovers as a result. When you see a side offloading so much without much in the way of a forward platform, the one thing you can truly predict about them is that they will be unpredictable. If the offloads and short kicks stick, Cardiff will score tries and you’ll see the likes of Owen Lane, in particular, rampaging away down the touchline for five points.
They’ve added Lopeti Timani, Thomas Young and Taulupe Faletau for next season to address some of their narrow and wider carrying issues but for now, their forward carrying in the 1-3-3-1 formation is a weakness and it’s one that Munster can attack. Like last week against Ulster, I feel that Cardiff’s ball-carrying style and limitations can be used against them as an instrument of forcing turnovers, handling errors and breakdown penalties in and around their half of the field i.e. north of the Munster 10m line.
Cardiff use an Option 3-3-1 shape primarily with a lot of focus on the read of the #10. It’s no surprise to see Jarrod Evans selected to start this one because his ball carrying, offloading, short kicking game and option taking is a difference-maker for Cardiff, especially when it comes to generating linebreak opportunities for Lee-Lo. Lee-Lo is a key carrier and offloaded for them so, with that knowledge, we can swarm that option and force Cardiff to go through the forwards or kick contestably.
We know Cardiff want to offload to get value out of their lower quality forward carrying so I say give them the window to offload. I would go with a low chop and poach defensive strategy to force handling errors and stress the breakdown support options inherent in the 1-3-3-1 system that tries to overdo tip-on and offloading as primary options off #9 and #10.
You go low, you bring them to ground, concede the offload opportunity and then poach from the inside shoulder.
If you can do that effectively from far enough out that you can recover from any offload they do land, you’ll win your fair share of breakdown penalties against this Cardiff team. That means longer, deeper exits from Healy and Murray, a good chase that doesn’t allow Amos or Lane too much momentum on transition and a good, transition defence flex after the kick to start pressuring their possession. Remember, if we start to see Cardiff kicking a lot we’re already most of the way there to beating them.
