I’ve got a bad feeling in my stomach about this game.
Maybe it’s something a dose of Andrews will fix. Or maybe it’s that the beginning of Spring is beginning to flower outside, the evenings are getting longer, it’s the Six Nations, Ireland have Wales up first and I enjoy misery. I don’t know what to do with myself without misery – I grew up watching Irish Rugby in the 80s and 90s, so I know about misery. I was born into misery, moulded by it. So knowing, as I do, that Ireland are legitimately riding the crest of a wave into this year’s Championship is a bit of a weird one for me because while there’s nothing to be miserable about per se, my mind always goes scrambling for the bucket of shit in the corner. Figurately speaking.
I suppose the reason for my unease was that the last time Ireland came into a Six Nations with this much momentum was… 2019. We’d beaten the All Blacks the November prior, we were the legit #1 team in the world, we had top players playing at their peak and… everything fell flat on its face. We lost at home to England in the first game of that year’s Championship – the first loss to England at home for six years at that point – and it was a grim portent of what was to come for the rest of the year.
We were top of the world until the ground shifted beneath us.
I don’t see that happening this time around but I’m not sure I did last time, either. Sure, I was concerned about England’s size and power relative to the season before – have a read here, and pay no attention to the horrific teamsheet graphics that I’ve just now remembered I designed and put out in public – but I didn’t see as catastrophic a defeat as home as that turned out to be in the offing. Or the rest of the Six Nations, or the World Cup, for that matter.
We were sitting in the dark then but we didn’t know it. Are we sitting in the dark this Spring dawdling away towards a shock? Or are we as good as we’d like to think we are?
We’ll know soon enough.
Wales: 15. Liam Williams, 14. Johnny McNicholl, 13. Josh Adams, 12. Nick Tompkins, 11. Louis Rees-Zammit; 10. Dan Biggar, 9. Tomos Williams; 1. Wyn Jones, 2. Ryan Elias, 3. Tomas Francis, 4. Will Rowlands, 5. Adam Beard, 6. Ellis Jenkins, 7. Taine Basham, 8. Aaron Wainwright
Replacements: 16. Dewi Lake, 17. Gareth Thomas, 18. Dillon Lewis, 19. Seb Davies, 20. Ross Moriarty, 21. Gareth Davies, 22. Callum Sheedy, 23. Owen Watkin
Wales are the practical inversion of Roy Keane’s classic story about Alex Ferguson’s team talk before a Manchester United home game against Tottenham Hotspur back in the 2000s.
“I thought I knew what the group might need, that we didn’t need a big team talk,” said Keane. “It was Tottenham at home. I thought please don’t go on about Tottenham, we all know what Tottenham is about, they are nice and tidy but we’ll fucking do them. He came in and said: ‘Lads, it’s Tottenham’, and that was it. Brilliant.”
Lad’s, it’s Tottenham.
The disdain. It was like whatever Tottenham did, whatever they thought they were coming into the game, United under Alex Ferguson knew they would “fucking do them” and that’s all that needed to be said. And they were almost always right.
That isn’t Wales. You might be able to whip out Lad’s, It’s Scotland over the last few years but whatever about injuries or player unavailability or the Welsh regions not really performing, Wales almost always show up for the Six Nations and against Ireland in particular. The more I hear about their injury list this week, the more squirrelly I get. Sure, being without Alun Wyn Jones is a blow but he is far from the only world-class player at Wayne Pivac’s disposal.
Looking at their matchday selection – their back row, in particular – I think Wales are set up to embed themselves in Ireland’s attacking framework like the way road spikes only work because of the motion of the car they intend to stop.
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Anyone who was watching Ireland during November would have seen how much more expansive Ireland were in possession than the previous Six Nations. Some of that is a slight change in approach, some of that is things developing with time. Ireland had the highest number of passes and the second-highest number of carries in the 2021 Six Nations so our attacking improvement wasn’t a new phenomenon. It was just tougher to pull off at that stage of the team’s development in the tougher environment of the Six Nations. I feel it would be a mistake to read too much into two wins over an overhyped Japanese side, the USA, Argentina in the middle of a deep rebuild and New Zealand who, despite their billing, are arguably in the middle of a deep enough rebuild of their own. One way or the other, New Zealand aren’t the benchmark in World Rugby at the moment as they have been in the past.
When I was approaching the preview for this game, I decided to approach it from the perspective of Wayne Pivac. Essentially, if I was trying to beat this Irish side after the November series they put down, how would I go about it?
The first thing I would realise is that Ireland’s system only works with possession. Ireland aren’t the box kicking side they have been made out to be for some time but they especially haven’t played that way under Farrell and Catt. Ireland are an on-ball team, and as 2021 showed, they will run the ball through the phases from anywhere outside their own 22. In last year’s Six Nations, Ireland were the only team to have the majority of our tries scored after 7+ phases. On average, teams in the Six Nations scored 33.7% of their tries off the first phase. 33.3% of Ireland’s tries were scored after seven or more phases. What does this mean? It means we are excellent at hanging onto the ball for long sequences and chewing through rucks at lightning speed. We won more rucks than any other side in last year’s Championship but we also had incredibly high ruck speed, especially in the oppositions 22-50, where we had the fastest ruck speed of any side. 59% of our ruck possession was sub-three seconds across the board and that kind of production allowed Ireland to play efficiently in our own half of the field, where we had the second-highest gain-line success in our own half of the field and the second-fastest ruck speed in that same zone.
So when teams kicked to us in our own half, we hung onto the ball more than we had previously, we were better at winning collisions in that area of the field, we produced quicker ball and we passed more than average in our own 22-50 zone.
For Wales, the answer to this is obvious – kick to Ireland in our half of the field off #10, pressure the receipt and then look to interrupt that ruck speed in our 22-50 zone through their Small Forward build back row.
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A lot of teams have found success in kicking deep contestable bomb’s to Ireland, in a manner that mimics some of the strategies that have been traditionally effective against Leinster. Like it or not, there are deep parallels between what Leinster do and what Ireland do. A lot of Ireland’s strengths are also Leinster’s strengths and, as a result, a lot of Leinster’s weaknesses are Ireland’s too.
You could see New Zealand approaching where they felt Ireland could be hurt with some of their tactical kicks.
That deep contestable to the backfield flank isn’t just about pressuring the kick receipt to force a turnover, it’s to start Ireland into negative territory sequences. Ireland only kicked 15.4% of the time within three phases if the ball was in that 22-50 zone. Most of Ireland’s improvement from a “style” perspective comes from our work in that zone.
If I’m Wales, I have to give Ireland that position but then attack the principles that underpin Ireland’s improvement there.
Watch this sequence and notice how often Ireland rotate that first handler but, more importantly, how many times we get away with a one-man clean or an opposition non-compete at the ruck.
We give away the penalty in the end because we overran our position but we could, and should, have been heavily contested at numerous points before that. Perhaps the All Blacks were running to a defensive scheme that meant they only competed heavily at the breakdown inside their own 10m line to keep numbers in the line as a way to attack Ireland’s layered attacking approach but, in doing so, they played into our hands. Ireland will pass around and straight-up block defensive lines, especially off the lineout.
Wales, with the back row they’ve selected, look set up to get dug into Ireland’s breakdown. It’s a defensive strategy not without its risks, but with Jaco Peyper refereeing, they might well be successful.
It won’t be simple for Wales by any means but I think mixing in elements of off-ball rugby is the way to build into this game. Essentially, move Ireland back into our 22-50 zone by kicking deep contestables, pressure the receipt enough to force a ruck at the very least, pressure that phase with a jackal and then heavily contest the next phase enough to slow Ireland down whatever happens.
From there, ensure that the outside edge defender is always looking to advance in on screened runners, even if that means giving up a crossfield kick behind him. If the ball is slow enough, you might also get access to Sexton as he starts up a loop sequence.
I think you’ll see Biggar go for the high bomb mostly but watch out for the angled chip over Aki’s outside shoulder to bring Josh Adams in as a chaser. Even if it isn’t retained, this angled, shallower kick will almost be more about bringing the poachers in on the phase or two after than it is about scoring directly.
This could be a close one if Ireland can’t react to the breakdown pressure that’s to come.
