So, the first test.

Two years of talk, one year of Lions plane  18 months of a global pandemic, one month of warm-up games and a shadow test match later, we come to the real thing. Springboks vs British & Irish Lions. Cape Town.

Right now, Warren Gatland and his coaching staff are sitting in a conference room, going over the selection for the first test against the Springboks. Unlike previous tours, they have direct experience of the upcoming opposition to draw on when making their decision. That unofficial first test against South Africa ‘A’ last week might have ended in defeat but it will have been very useful in clarifying the different builds and units that the Lions will need in place to produce an 80-minute plus performance in this first official test.

So what are the criteria that they’re selecting on? We don’t know. We can only guess based on what we’ve seen from the Lions over the last few weeks offensively, defensively and at the set-piece with some added references to what we now know about the Springboks after last week.

In this article, I’ll examine the Lions backline I would select for the first test this week.

We’ll deal with the offensive side of the ball first and on this, we’ve got to select according to the attacking scheme and to the wider pictures that we want to create offensively. That, to me, means three playmakers – a primary, a secondary and a strike playmaker – so that means Owen Farrell, Dan Biggar and Stuart Hogg selected in the backline almost automatically for me.

Dan Biggar is a top-class passing #10 with the size and pop in the carry to stagger the Springbok blitz and the kicking variety to open up crossfield opportunities for the wingers.

Stuart Hogg gives you quality as a rotating first receiver but it’s his strike running and deep kicking ability in the wider channels that intrigues me, especially when he slots in as the second layer playmaker at different points of the game.

I’ve gone with Owen Farrell at #12 as my primary playmaker because (a) I think it’s his best role and (b) it allows him to be a key hinge decision-maker for the Lions when they run through that deep 3-3/2-X shape they’ve been running for the last few weeks. If you’re going to play with that level of depth – and I think you have to against the Boks to avoid getting smashed up on the gainline – you have to be comfortable drawing the Springbok defence out of the primary line and who better than Owen Farrell to get the Springboks chasing hits? What do I mean by Primary Playmaker? For me, this means that I want Farrell to be the guy who is most often in a position to execute the pictures we are working to generate. What does that mean?

I think the Springboks are most vulnerable to a two-phase progression across the field. It doesn’t matter if this is set up at the end of a multi-phase sequence or as the end-game to a short-phase set-piece strike play.

If we accept that the Springboks use an outside-in wing blitz with overlapping cover, then the only logical place to target is that blitzing winger or edge defender. Forcing the Springboks edge defender into making a blitz to space will produce the picture that the Lions are looking to generate.

That’s why Farrell is the guy for me to play that “hinge” role. He just makes good decisions in that position and good decisions in the second layer will ensure correct execution of opportunities and the blitz we want from Nkosi, Kolbe or whoever is defending the edge space for the Springboks.

What keeps the edge defender jockeying in place rather than blitzing? That first phase off #9 at the start of the progression. It’s vital to producing this picture that we want.

When you don’t hold that Springbok defensive slide and go wide too early, you tell Kolbe to jockey in position. In the above example, I think Harris and Daly thought they saw a picture that wasn’t there and went hunting for width immediately.

That pass from Harris to Daly told Kolbe to “hold”, to squeeze the space and allow Faf De Klerk to make an aggressive blitz on Rees-Zammit. That looks like a bad missed tackle on Rees-Zammit but it forced the winger to readjust his gait, which slowed him and allowed the Boks scramble defence to make the stop.

Look at their defensive setup after the ruck recycled.

Formidable.

What do the Lions need to do from here? They have to try to extend their playoff #9 to start chopping away at the Springbok defensive width with a tip-on pass but that is easier said than done, which describes a lot of concepts when it comes to this South African defence.

To examine the concept again, we must look at this picture and ask where our second layer handler is? Daly and Harris went ball hunting after their involvements on the previous phase and Aki had not reset into the slot position behind that middle screen.

This means that Nkosi, the far winger, has no reason to change his position for any reason at this point because there is no logical manner of progressing the ball across the field for the Lions, bar a massive linebreak up the middle. The Lions lose the ball here anyway – they were on an advantage – but you can see why I think Gatland will want more playmaker builds in his backline who will naturally file into these positions.

Hogg, Biggar and Farrell have the versatility and movement to rotate through these slots fully which is why, for me, they need to start if the Lions are to run the scheme they want to against that Springbok defence.

The other question is scrumhalf.

Ali Price’s good performances in the warm-up games to date have tempted a lot of people to name him as their starting #9 for the tests but I can’t see any way that Gatland selects him unless Conor Murray is injured. Against the Stormers on Saturday night, Price showed that he can play some good stuff behind a pack that is generally winning collisions. That is where his running and movement around the ruck is most effective and, in a lot of ways, he reminds me of Jamison Gibson-Park with his overall style and best features. He’s got a great range of short passes, he’s great at supporting a near-ruck break and he’s well capable of playing with “tempo”. Where would he be weak? For me, his pass accuracy phase for phase is inconsistent when asked to go to the mid and long-range, as is the standard of his box kicking in a general sense. Price’s best passing is also reliant on the action he puts around the ruck pre-pass, which I’m not sure is a good fit against this Springbok defence. Too much ruck movement pre-pass from the scrumhalf gives the Springbok blitz defence more time to fill the space that we want to play into.

For me, there is no question that Conor Murray must start against the Springboks. His performance against South Africa A, while below his best, still featured strong work in the core areas of the game. The biggest complaints I saw about his performance related to his kicking but even with one box kick sent out on the full, Murray’s kicking was consistently effective at advancing the Lions’ position.

In tandem with a strong chasing performance by Anthony Watson in particular, Murray only lost ground on three of his thirteen kicks. That is to say that even when the Lions failed to retain the kick, the subsequent phases ended ahead of where Murray kicked the ball. For context, Faf De Klerk lost ground on six of his twelve box kicks.

Murray’s passing all through the ranges – offload, short, medium and long – are consistently better than Price or Davies and Murray’s ability to consistently hit mid to long-range targets from a static ruck position will be key to the Lions overall attacking structure, especially in an environment where you will not have collision dominance across the 80 minutes.

He consistently finds his targets from a static position that keeps the Bok line on-side. Look at the range on this pass;

Murray finds Farrell outside the press of Du Toit, who can then find Daly in the second layer which drags Nkosi up on the blitz on the second phase of a lineout strike. That isn’t to say that Murray is incapable of chucking a brick but he does so at a far lower rate than Davies or Price in my opinion.

Both of those players would make a solid tempo option off the bench, if necessary – of the two, I’d go with Ali Price.

***

With our playmakers in situ, the final part is working out our hitters and our strike runners.

The first name down on the teamsheet in the back three, for me, is Robbie Henshaw, even with his limited rugby over the last few weeks. Chris Harris and Bundee Aki have had their moments but Henshaw’s ability to blend real power and pace with a wide passing range and a decent kicking game is an offensive must-have.

Henshaw’s stopping power and intelligence in defence – phase play and set-piece – will tie together the Lions’ defensive schemes, as will his ability to cover the wide backfield if required on kick transition. Robbie Henshaw is the most complete player out of all the midfielder’s available and, even with his limited game time, he starts for me at #13.

That leaves the two wing positions. Part of me is intrigued by what I’ve seen from Duhan Van Der Merwe on this tour. His physical power to hold the wide edge in possession and offer himself as a strong inside ball option consistently would be really desirable for me but I’m concerned about his work positionally in defence and under the high ball.

That said, I’m not sure I’d have Van Der Merwe ahead of Josh Adams, who will start for me in the #11 jersey. He’s got ball carrying impact, good handling, strong straight-line running, powerful inside ball lines and, for me, is a more complete defender than Van Der Merwe, positionally and under the high ball. Adams is a proven top-class finisher too, which I feel the Lions will need to execute some of the more difficult opportunities.

My final wing spot belongs to Anthony Watson who, for me, is exactly the player the Lions need as an offensive component and as an elite chaser. If we want to pressure Nkosi and Le Roux in the backfield, I’d back Anthony Watson to make that play off the Murray box kick. Offensively, he’s got top-end pace and power and his agility and elusiveness make him ideal as that deep-lying pocket runner for a guy like Farrell in the hinge position.

Elliot Daly has the quality to cover four backline positions, so he’s my outside back replacement on a 6/2 split-bench.

Starting Test Backline: 15. Stuart Hogg, 14. Anthony Watson, 13. Robbie Henshaw, 12. Owen Farrell, 11. Josh Adams; 10. Dan Biggar, 9. Conor Murray

Replacements: 22. Ali Price, 23. Elliot Daly