[su_dropcap style=”flat” size=”4″]M[/su_dropcap]ake no mistake about it, this is probably the biggest game for Munster Rugby in this squad’s cycle. Previous huge games – the Champions Cup semi-finals of the last few years – were different in that they were a step towards where we are this weekend. They were a game to earn a chance at a trophy, whereas this is a game to win one.
Standing across from us are the side that have killed our PRO14 hopes at the semi-final stage of the last three seasons stone dead and, for added synchronicity, it’ll be played in the place where they have usually done so – the RDS. It’s Leinster. It’s Munster. And the PRO14 title is on the line.
We’d all love for there to be no pressure on this final, to say that it was “just another game” but that is just not true. There is pressure on this game for Munster and I would posit that it’s a bit of a turning point moment.
Win, and I genuinely believe that Munster will take a further step towards being a European Cup-winning team in the next two seasons. Lose and, while it won’t be the end of the season, it will be a serious kick in the stones to this group. There will be nothing to learn, nothing to take from it except that it is better to win finals than it is to lose them. That’s before we talk about the added meaning imparted on this final surrounding the impending retirement of Billy Holland and CJ Stander. There’s a danger – not in the group, but amongst fans – to narrativise the build-up to games like this in the context of emotional touchstones like Billy and CJ retiring, this being the first final against Leinster since our last trophy literally 10 years ago… but all that means nothing.
The last time we had this opportunity – in 2017 against a rampant Scarlets side powered by Tadhg Beirne – it was the season that Anthony Foley passed away but Munster lost that game and it wasn’t even close.
There is no grand narrative power pushing us towards the win here. It will have to be done on the pitch. You can apply a grand narrative after the game but never before. It’s a recipe for a self-uppercut pie with some misery sauce.
It’s not just about being “up for it” – we’re going to be up for this – but it’s about performing when it counts against a team who generally perform when it counts. Leinster are not going to be surprised if we turn up for this game pumped, they would be beyond naive to expect anything different. So they will be looking to crush our energy early. We will have to resist.
Will this game be any different to the five losses in a row we’ve suffered since 2018/19? Leinster will be confident that it won’t. What has changed for them, negatively? Not much, really. Sure, Leinster have lost games at home this season – to Connacht and the Ospreys just last weekend – but those losses won’t have much effect on this game because the personnel is going to be so different player for player.
Munster have certainly been close to beating Leinster in these last five games – no closer than back in January where some late indiscipline in both halves and errors off the tee gave Leinster a way back into the game and would ultimately hand them victory – but getting “close” won’t do it this time.
Getting over the line against this opponent has never been more important.
Leinster: 15. Hugo Keenan, 14. Jordan Larmour, 13. Rory O’Loughlin, 12. Robbie Henshaw, 11. Dave Kearney; 10. Ross Byrne, 9. Luke McGrath (c); 1. Cian Healy, 2. Rónan Kelleher, 3. Andrew Porter, 4. Devin Toner, 5. Scott Fardy, 6. Rhys Ruddock, 7. Josh van der Flier, 8. Jack Conan
Replacements: 16. James Tracy, 17. Ed Byrne, 18. Tadhg Furlong, 19. Ross Molony, 20. Ryan Baird, 21. Jamison Gibson-Park, 22. Johnny Sexton, 23. James Lowe
***
Munster know how to beat Leinster, it’s been actually executing that knowledge into a win that’s been the issue.
Johann Van Graan said this week that Leinster are a team with no weaknesses, and I think he’s right when he says that. There’s no area of their matchday squad or setup that immediately announces itself as a weak link. They have class players in every line of the team so it’s never as simple as stopping one particular guy or hoping for a drop off in a key facet of their game because Leinster are simply too good for that. Beating a full strength Leinster side is a multi-step process.
I’ve been over a key part of this game before and there’s no getting away from it – kicking will be hugely important and not just our kicking, the kicking we force out of Leinster.
This is old ground but both Saracens, Connacht and ourselves have consistently shown that a kick heavy set-up game can help to keep Leinster away from where they are most dangerous. A side that kicks to compete well enough to pressure the Leinster receipt, that can hold them in their 50-22 and then force a kickback off Leinster, will be in a position to build into the game against them. I think Leinster’s selection of Kearney over Lowe from the start is a little nod to this aspect of Munster’s game. Kearney is far superior to Lowe in the air and positionally, so Leinster will live without the wide and looped physicality of Lowe for the initial going to shore up that part of their backfield. Kearney is a far better kick chaser too, which will be important for maintaining Leinster’s exit strategy as both Gibson-Park and McGrath have a tendency to overcook their tactical box kick exits. Munster’s work in transition will be vitally important.
I feel Leinster are aware of this tendency to overcook their box kicks, however, so a lot of their exit and tactical kicking has been moved back to Byrne and Sexton. Here’s a tactical kick off #10 that Munster would likely kick off #9 from the same position. First things first, though, check out the looping scrumhalf action from McGrath with Keenan acting as the receiver off a Doris pinch line – this is a common enough Leinster phase strike.
When Munster stuff that phase on this occasion, Leinster reset and drop the ball back to Sexton for a high, central bomb just outside the Munster 22.
That leads directly to a try-scoring opportunity for Larmour after Haley spills the kick. Sexton and Byrne will aim a percentage of their tactical kicks here for the same reason that Ireland does – they are good at accurately targeting bombs to this area of the field and it’s always challenging for a fullback or backfield defender to claim. There’s an element of risk/reward here too as a cleanly claimed kick in this area can lead directly to a lethal transition but Leinster have Henshaw/Keenan/Larmour and Kearney as capable chasers.
Transition opportunities do show up against Leinster when they kick off #10 like this from deep in their own half. Munster won a penalty on this runback after Porter went off his feet but the real possibility here is getting runners attacking this transition set.
When Leinster kick like this, the backs outside half to chase hard to bring everyone onside – that’s never been more important than now with the new ruck interpretation – so that creates a natural sagging point on one side of the Leinster transition defence. If Munster can get an Earls, Conway or Carbery attacking back against the grain against Porter, Healy, Toner and Fardy, there will be space there, especially if Byrne or Sexton put a little too much on their exit.
This will be a multi-faceted battle that will be a defining game for Munster one way or the other. It’s going to be nervous watching but this is why we watch this sport – to see our team compete for trophies at the highest level.
Let’s go.
