[su_dropcap style=”flat” size=”4″]A[/su_dropcap] story dropped late on Monday night that Glasgow Warriors, objectively the worst club in professional rugby as judged by a recent survey conducted between myself and the inhabitants of the Post Match Wallystream live chat, were making a move to sign Ben Healy. He was Scottish qualified, the article said, and Gregor Townsend would look to cap him. Not only that, he would get a substantial bounce on the money he’s currently making on his academy deal.
The DMs and emails started to arrive immediately.
“Surely it can’t be true?!”
“Bullshit”
Well, it almost certainly is true that Glasgow have made an offer to Ben Healy’s agent. It’s also true that if Ben Healy were to sign for Glasgow next summer they would look to cap him almost immediately to ensure his value to the Irish provinces (who he would be naturally attracted to re-sign for) would plummet as he would be viewed as non-Irish qualified and, as a result, write him out of their charts permanently. If Scarlets could have capped Tadhg Beirne in his second year, they would have done it for that reason alone. At that point, he would be locked into Scottish rugby where he would fight for a place with Adam Hastings.
Once he was signed into the Scottish system, he would likely find his wage progression slowed until he became valuable enough that an English Premiership or TOP14 club would make an offer for him but, at that stage, his value to Scotland would be incrementally larger than it would be to Glasgow. This is an in-built safety valve to Scottish rugby. Eventually, they expect to lose some of their very best players so that they can keep their wage system intact.
While the story mentioned a significant bump in money should he move to Glasgow, the same would be true if he signed a decent senior contract with Munster. Your average academy contract is worth way less than you might think so any increase onto real money from that low point would be considered a nice bump.
It’s certainly possible that Ben Healy could choose to go to Scotland but I think this story is more to do with an agent expressing the worth of his client to his current employers ahead of contract negotiations by highlighting the interest in him from elsewhere.
This is fairly standard practice and it shouldn’t be held against the player or his agent.
Do I think Ben Healy will ultimately sign a two or three-year deal at Munster? Yes. The Glasgow link is certainly plausible but I think Munster and the IRFU will make it their business to sign up guys like Healy to long term deals. It makes depth chart and financial sense for both Munster and Ireland.
Let’s have a look at Munster’s expired contract list for this year.
These are all based on the contract durations listed for all players at the time their current deals were announced. All the Year Three academy players are listed by default as academy contract deals roll over every year until year three. I’ve included John Hodnett because I think he’ll be contracted to a full deal this season.
Peter O’Mahony, CJ Stander and Keith Earls are currently on central deals with the IRFU and will be negotiating with them first and foremost, so they take part in a slightly different conversation.
As ever, let’s list my terminology as used in the Derailing The Big East series.
Priority 1: Important player to be replaced within one season
Priority 2:Important player to be replaced within two seasons
Priority 3:Important player to be replaced within three seasons
Core 1: Important first-choice player in peak age that likely has four seasons of peak performance remaining.
Squad 2: High squad player in peak age that likely has four+ seasons of peak performance remaining.
Foundation Player: Young talent (20-24) expected to play for five + seasons and transition to Core 1 or Squad 2.
Potential Foundation: Talent ID’d young player (18-23) that has the potential to ascend to regular first-team exposure as a Core 1 or Squad 2 type player.
Assess 1: A player who I can’t give a fair rating to based on not seeing enough of them in a senior Munster shirt.
(A): Academy player
(S): Young player already in the senior squad.
| Player | Position | Age on Jan 1 2021 | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Cronin | LHP | 30 | PRIORITY 3 |
| Josh Wycherley (A) | LHP | 21 | POTENTIAL FOUNDATION 1 |
| Niall Scannell | HK | 28 | SQUAD 1 |
| Rhys Marshall | HK | 28 | SQUAD 1 |
| Diarmuid Barron (S) | HK | 22 | ASSESS 1 |
| Eoghan Clarke (A) | HK | 21 | ASSESS 1 |
| James French (A) | THP | 22 | ASSESS 1 |
| Billy Holland | L | 35 | PRIORITY 1 |
| Thomas Ahern (A) | L | 20 | FOUNDATION 1 |
| Fineen Wycherley (S) | L/FL | 23 | POTENTIAL FOUNDATION |
| Peter O'Mahony (CC) | FL | 31 | PRIORITY 3 |
| Tommy O'Donnell | FL | 33 | PRIORITY 1 |
| John Hodnett (A) | FL | 21 | FOUNDATION 1 |
| Jack Daly (A) | FL | 22 | ASSESS 1 |
| Jack O'Donoghue | FL/8 | 26 | SQUAD 1 |
| Gavin Coombes (S) | 8 | 23 | FOUNDATION 1 |
| CJ Stander (CC) | 8 | 30 | PRIORITY 3 |
| Craig Casey (S) | SH | 21 | FOUNDATION 1 |
| Neil Cronin | SH | 28 | SQUAD 1 |
| Nick McCarthy | SH | 25 | SQUAD 1 |
| JJ Hanrahan | FH | 27 | SQUAD 1 |
| Ben Healy (A) | FH | 21 | FOUNDATION 1 |
| Rory Scannell | M | 27 | SQUAD 1 |
| Alex McHenry (S) | M | 23 | ASSESS 1 |
| Shane Daly | W/FB/C | 24 | FOUNDATION 1 |
| Liam Coombes (S) | W | 23 | ASSESS 1 |
| Seán French (A) | W | 21 | ASSESS 1 |
| Keith Earls (CC) | W | 33 | PRIORITY 1 |
| Calvin Nash | W | 23 | POTENTIAL FOUNDATION |
| Darren Sweetnam | W | 27 | SQUAD 1 |
| Jonathan Wren (A) | W/FB | 21 | ASSESS 1 |
| Mike Haley | FB | 26 | SQUAD 1 |
Any sporting organisation is going to tier their players in certain monetary bands based on their relative importance to the squad as a whole and this often intersects with their tenure at the club and whether or not they were signed from elsewhere. This can sometimes create weird depth chart/finance chart clashes.
Tommy O’Donnell, for example, has played 158 minutes this season so far. John Hodnett played 193 minutes before his unfortunate Achilles tendon injury. I think it would be fair to say that Hodnett was closer to starting important games than O’Donnell was at the time of injury but, because Hodnett is still on an academy deal and O’Donnell is in the last year of the two year deal he signed in 2018, O’Donnell would be the higher paid of the two.
This is far from unusual though. O’Donnell is a 33-year-old, 183 cap Munster stalwart with 13 Irish caps to his name so it would be natural that by the time he was coming to the end of his contract, he would be on the wages befitting a senior player and be lower on the depth chart than a player on substantially lower wages per annum. Most organisations would look to rebalance that out on the next contract cycle by cycling the older player out and investing in the younger player.
And that “rebalancing” is something that would seem to be a priority for the IRFU and provinces over the coming two or three seasons, especially if the PRO16 that David Nucifora was hinting at becomes a reality in the new year. That change to 16 teams would provide a template for an 18 game regular season which could pave the way to having a test window free season. No test window games would mean stronger regular-season league selections which are;
- Better for attendances
- Better for the TV “product”
- Fairer to sides who can’t match the size and depth of the Irish squads (everyone else)
In my opinion, that would also allow all the teams in the league to downsize their professional squad numbers because, with no test window rugby, there wouldn’t be a need for the kind of depth that Munster/Leinster/Ulster and, to an extent, Connacht currently wield to cover for the seven or eight games test window games that take place during the PRO14 season.
Those seven or eight games are the buffer that the Irish provinces use to extend dominant conference leads and that advantage has grown. Beating a depleted Zebre by 49 points or walloping a Cardiff Blues Z team during a test window earns you the same five points as a hard-fought, four try a piece nail biter against a full-strength Edinburgh or Scarlets side in late March.
If those games are no longer being played during a test window, there’s scope to reduce your squad size by five or six “middle tier” players who;
- Are 26 and above.
- Aren’t in regular test squad contention or on a specific role depth chart at international level.
- Are pretty deep in a provincial depth chart.
- Are pretty well paid “second layer” players (perhaps with a few international caps) who aren’t cast-iron European Champions Cup matchday regulars if everyone is fit.
If you reference these criteria against the above list, you can see who might be “on the bubble” in an environment where there will be cost-cutting.
Munster currently has 43 senior professionals with 15 academy players. There are 23 senior players out of contract this coming summer if we don’t count academy players.
For context, Leinster currently have 46 senior professionals and 18 academy players, Ulster have 43 senior professionals and 15 academy players and Connacht have 44 senior professionals and 17 academy players. I do not have information on how many senior players they have coming up for contract but I would imagine the numbers will be similar enough.
In any situation where you expect to endure cost-cutting, the obvious place to start is in that middle group of players but to do that, you need to promote a lot of young players who are ready to take on expanded roles. That leaves space to keep most – most – of the top guys you really want but anyone on the highest level of wages will have to be one or ideally two of the following;
- Irish Qualified Priority 3 tier max (that is, they will need to be fully replaced inside three seasons excluding any adverse injury events). Anyone Priority 2 or lower is in danger here.
- At the top of their national depth chart in a high priority role set (tighthead lock, power forward, power winger) or position (front three, scrumhalf, 10).
- Or a key player at provincial level for which there is no immediate young player replacement that would realistically be able to replace them within two seasons.
Those are broadly the criteria that will be applied to the central contract players who have expired contracts at the end of this season.
For Munster, I think we are uniquely positioned to push multiple young and academy players to advanced squad roles and dramatically rebalance the squad to a younger focus. That is not without risk – clubs like experienced players for a reason in that they are mostly known properties – but guys like Casey, Healy, Coombes, the Wycherleys, Ahern and Hodnett (never mind the Y1/Y2 guys) have too much “upside” to be overly conservative. They are the future and the present. Smart investment now could set Munster up over the coming two or three seasons to rebalance our squad financially and maximise on-field performance.
