[su_dropcap style=”flat” size=”4″]T[/su_dropcap]he last time we were talking about Ireland, we were talking about a pretty comprehensive defeat to England in Twickenham all the way back in February of this year. Our problems then – backfield and aerial defence combined with an inability to win a series of effective collisions – are still our problems today, at least in theory, but I don’t expect them to be an issue against Italy.

There might be eight months between the rounds of this year’s Six Nations but the big issue in October is the same as it was in March – Ireland’s penultimate game away to France and the ball carrying rotation we will need to win that game. It’s great to be back playing test rugby after everything that we’ve collectively endured this year but these are not “gimme” games. A bonus-point win here would be enough to put Ireland top of the table before that last round game away to France where a W could see us winning this tournament and the €6.6m top prize money on offer. Finishing 2nd/3rd is worth €2.7m. Yes, there’s the guaranteed purse for being involved in the tournament but in a COVID world where no-one has full gates, that extra prize money is more important than ever. So while “experimentation” is good, this game against Italy isn’t a shot to nothing and I think Andy Farrell’s selection reflects that.

The original fixture was slated to feature a rotational selection back in March but that was before the world as we knew it ended. You could argue that the same is true of this weekend’s squad in certain positions but I think this is a window into what a “bigger” Ireland might look like.

Against England back in February, Ireland looked undersized and underpowered. Unless we see progression this weekend, there’s nothing to suggest that the final round against France won’t look the same as that trip to Twickenham. That isn’t to say we should be looking beyond Italy – they have an incredibly talented young core of players coming through alongside proven performers like Steyn, Polledri and Negri. With Franco Smith in charge, they will look to play ball and if we’re not careful they have the ability to hurt us on transition and their tight phase play – look at Benetton’s recent performances against Leinster for an idea of how that might look.

Let’s have a look at the teams and then get into what we’re expecting from this contest.

Italy: 15. Jayden Hayward, 14. Edoardo Padovani, 13. Luca Morisi, 12. Carlo Canna, 11. Mattia Bellini; 10. Paolo Garbisi, 9. Marcello Violi; 1. Danilo Fischetti, 2. Luca Bigi (c), 3. Giosuè Zolocchi, 4. Marco Lazzaroni, 5. Niccolò Cannone, 6. Sebastian Negri, 7. Braam Steyn, 8. Jake Polledri

Replacements: 16. Gianmarco Lucchesi, 17. Simone Ferrari, 18. Pietro Cecciarelli, 19. David Sisi, 20. Johan Meyer, 21. Maxime Mbanda’, 22. Callub Braley, 23. Federico Mori 

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There is no international form to go on coming into this game so my focus in this piece is going to be on what we expect to see from the Irish pack from a role perspective.

Before the lockdown, Ireland were running a variation of the 2-3-2-1/1-3-2-2 fluid hybrid that’s become something of a trend over the last year and a half. The 2-3-2-1/1-3-2-2 is quite fluid in that you will often see a team oscillate between the two rough structures on the same phase sequence.

Here’s a 2-3-2-1 going right to left.

And here’s how the same structure would look on the reverse, assuming that we move the ball all the way across the field and lose #4 to the wide ruck. The shape has adjusted to an openside 3-2-2.

Here’s a look at the general principles and one of the ways we used it against England – this is a 3-2-1 split-screen to generate width and depth for Larmour to attack around the edge of the defence.

The action with the split-screen comes after a hit up off #9 by the three pod.

Aki, Stander and Van Der Flier hold English defenders on the short side to create that opportunity – which relies on the split-screen holding the attention of the blitz line outside Itoje long enough for Henshaw to try to run Larmour onto an isolation – and it’s a good example of the principle behind this structure.

On this example, Larmour came back inside to a central position and, with that, you can see one of the drawbacks to this oscillating shape.

We have to reuse the three pod and ultimately kick away possession because we’re constricted and narrow.

To make a system like this work, you need to gain and sustain width so that your 3-2-X system has depth and lateral space to work with. Peter O’Mahony’s role in this structure has been the wide X player at the end of the “whip”, almost exclusively.

This structure might look like a 3-3-1 but Healy is a non-moving part of that middle pod of players – you can see his position two phases later as a wider “pivot screen” who the backline can screen around.

A pivot screen is a player who can run a chopping line like Healy on this phase while the play swings around him.

As this ball comes across, O’Mahony’s role is very clear – facilitate the lateral progression of the ball to the overlap swinging around his pod and win the wide ruck position.

The role here is quite clear – move the ball, track the run, win the ruck. Have a look at how he runs this particular phase and the importance of all those qualities.

It is in this role that O’Mahony excels in, especially in a system like this where well secured wide rucks are so valuable. In this instance, Murray was slow to the ruck – he was involved in the original contact point – so the phase slowed down but you can see the structure reshaping on the other side after the recycle; it’s a 3-2-1 in this instance.

This shape gives you quite a bit of a variety and passing options. Sexton and Aki have plenty of targets to work with – forwards and backs – but it needs to “stretch its legs” while keeping some semblance of structural cohesion.

In this instance, Van Der Flier looped around from the midfield two pod to create a short-side two pod but, with Aki down injured, that left Murray passing to a side of the field where we were undermanned and we got swallowed up by England’s blitz.

I think this pod decoy was meant to be a pass to Aki with Van Der Flier linking up with Herring on the short side to create an overload but the reset we went for was an example of what happens when you lose numbers from the pod and just try to pass your way around a blitz.

The biggest point of interest for me is going to be our role division in the forwards as it pertains to structure we expect Ireland to run in this game. I’ve seen a bit of confusion over Josh Van Der Flier’s exclusion from this selection but I think it’s an either/or between him and O’Mahony at this stage. Both play broadly similar support and facilitation roles on attacking sequences but I would argue that selecting both players in the same back row is the weakest and most unsuitable flanker combination we have if we’re running a 3-2-X shape.

Why would O’Mahony get the nod here? He offers a strong lineout role that can balance out the back five whenever he’s on the field and Josh Van Der Flier does not. That third man lineout option is still a vitally important role in the squad and it will only be superseded from a selection perspective if Doris or some other player begins to offer the same role strength.

Every single role in the pack is important because it fills a number of jobs that have to be done by someone. You have to select players to fill these roles. Forget about numbers on backs – the roles will be done by whoever is best suited to them. If we break down the Irish pack and replacements, I think our role set looks like this. Keep in mind that everyone is expected to be able to clean a ruck or make a tackle if they need to but you want your role specialists doing what they’re best at.

Lead Carriers: Ryan, Stander, Beirne, Doris Heffernan, Dillane
Wider Carriers: Doris, Stander, Beirne, Connors, O’Mahony
Heavy Phase Support: Healy, Herring, Porter, Byrne, Bealham, O’Mahony

Primary Lineout Offensive: Ryan, Beirne, Doris, Dillane, O’Mahony
Secondary Lineout Offensive: Stander, Connors

Primary Lineout Defensive: Ryan, Beirne, Doris, O’Mahony

Primary Defensive Collisions: Porter, Ryan, Connors, Herring, Heffernan, Byrne, Dillane
Primary Defensive Breakdown: Beirne, Stander, Porter, Bealham, O’Mahony

There’s a bit of crossover in these roles – I expect Beirne and Stander to really mix up their positioning on attacking phase play, for example. They can both act as hitters off #9 but have the skillset and attributes to take on expanded roles further out. I’m most interested in what roles Connors takes on.

We know that Connors is a dominant, 15+ tackles a day guy in the middle of the field and he’ll need to be right on form against Polledri, Negri and Steyn in that Italian back row. He’ll be a key part of what I’d imagine our centre-field defensive tackle/breakdown strategy will be with two of the best jackals in Europe playing alongside him.

But what are his other strengths? He’s 6’5″ so you’d imagine there’s a lineout forward waiting to get out there but elements of that part of his game are still a question mark for me on both sides of the ball. Will he be the forward leftover in midfield to stick  We know he can carry the ball off #9 and on pick-and-goes but I’d expect him to take on a wider role similar to O’Mahony on attacking sequences. Connors has good pace, good hands and looks like a decent offensive breakdown guy so that wider support role looks like a decent fit for his skillset.

I think, all going well, we’ll see Doris and Connors taking the ball in wider areas where Doris’ explosivity and acceleration will be a dangerous option as we progress across the field.

This will be an interesting barometer as to where we are in the wider plan to upscale and accelerate our attacking tempo and watching how guys like Doris and Connors fit into our overall attacking concept will be a show within a show.