[su_dropcap style=”flat” size=”4″]T[/su_dropcap]here’s a theory that deals with the possibility of advanced alien life that I found while tumbling down a Youtube hole a few years ago. It’s called the Fermi Paradox. This paradox is quite complex but, basically, the Italian-American physicist Enrico Fermi posited that if our Milky Way galaxy is literally billions of years old and full of stars similar to ours but millions of years older, the likelihood of life springing up on one of these planets – if Earth is a typical planet rather than one in a trillion – is quite high.

If that’s true, and this advanced life sprang up millions of years ago to a point where they may have created interstellar travel, the question has to be – where are they? Fermi’s paradox relied on a theory of a Great Filter – an inevitable phenomenon baked into the cosmos that prevents advanced life from getting to the point where they can interact with other life forms.

Maybe that Great Filter is the leap to complex eukaryote cells from ultrabasic prokaryote cells – in which case, congrats guys, we already passed. Or maybe the Great Filter is a species of highly advanced alien life forms that eradicate any species that displays an ability to travel reliably beyond their own solar system. In which case, that might explain why we don’t hear from anyone else.

Basically, the Great Filter is a barrier that we can’t see and can only know when we bump up against it. In rugby terms, the Great Filter is quite different in that you can see exactly what is preventing you from ascending to where you want to be and, for Munster Rugby over the last few years, the Great Filter has been the semi-final stage of the Champions Cup and a loss to Leinster in the PRO14 semi-finals in the RDS.

This year, the Great Filter came a little earlier for Munster in a European context thanks to a nasty draw with the two sides who had ended our European journeys in 2017 and 2018 – a resurgent Racing 92 and the current European Champions, Saracens as they were prior to the salary cap dismantling that has happened since.

A draw with Racing in Limerick and two losses away in Paris and Barnet did Munster in for this season (the one that locked down back in March – MARCH!) and was probably a fair enough reflection of where we were relative to the times that were likely to contest the final of 2019/20’s Champions Cup.

We can point to the injuries suffered to Carbery, Kilcoyne and Beirne, latterly. We can also point to having two core coaches start relatively late on the job with most of the starting elements of our Category 1 team arriving back from Japan with exactly four weeks to get up to speed which Larkham, Rowntree and the rest of the squad had been doing since August.

They sound like excuses – because they are – but excuses are just part of the reason why a thing you expect to happen didn’t happen. The problem comes when you assume that excuses are the only reason why you lost and while injuries, coaching disruption and the World Cup played a part in Munster’s failure to leave the pool, I felt that we lacked top-end physicality on the whole and that translated into difficulty imposing our attacking strategy against the very top teams.

Meeting Racing and Saracens early didn’t help our prospects but I think those games would ultimately preview any meeting with them in the knockouts. We were close, relatively speaking, but not close enough.

On my look back through Munster’s season, it seemed clear that we were constantly looking to generate positive attacking scenarios through high tempo momentum. That would translate into searching for quick ball and width but we found that difficult to do against elite, heavy teams who could slow us down at the point of contact, even after a positive phase of attack and we would have to start all over again.

Using size and power to “anchor” a wider, higher tempo attack is a contradictory theme when it comes to playing a more expansive game, but it’s a consistent marker in the very best teams. If you want to play high-tempo, expansive rugby, it has to be played off the back of collision dominance over a set number of phases somewhere and, in our games against Racing and Saracens this season, we would run out of carrying options sooner than we’d like, both off #9 and #10.

If we’re to move beyond our Great Filter to become a team that wins PRO14 titles in the short term and European Cup’s in the medium term, there’s no better yardstick than Leinster. Any PRO14 title we win will likely have to be done by beating Leinster at some stage.

It’s easier written than done, let’s put it like that.

***

Leinster had a 100% record during 2019/20 up until the lockdown and it isn’t hard to see why.

They’ve got a rake of top-class internationals backed up with quality squad players and a rock-solid system that’s evolving every season. I think we’ve seen Leinster make a real step ahead this season – September to March – in their attacking work. Defensively, I think Leinster have looked very solid, as per usual, but slightly more vulnerable to slide plays that target their midfield – Garry Ringrose in particular. I’ll have a look at that in the Red Eye closer to the upcoming Interpro series.

I can’t talk about Munster derailing Leinster without referencing our game against them back in December. It was quite a frustrating game from a Munster perspective. We had our hands tied on selection – we loaded up for the in-conference away game to Connacht straight after the Sarries back to back – and we took the field against Leinster in Thomond Park looking a little light. We went into the game with one notable heavy ball carrier in the pack and our smallest possible midfield configuration.

When you look back at the game, you get a look at where our problems were against bigger teams in microcosm, despite the rotation in Leinster’s selection. We struggled to consistently generate tempo through the forwards centrally – despite some good work by Fineen Wycherley and Keynon Knox/Jack O’Sullivan in the second half – and so we struggled to impact them further out. When we went looking for impact in midfield, we didn’t find it. Rory Scannell did produce two nice kicks but himself and Sam Arnold were consistently stopped on phase play and off the set-piece. Leinster, on the other hand, consistently found space and overlaps.

I wondered why that was.

It escaped me at the time – I forget how intense the weekly grind of matchday, match review, Wally Ratings and podcasts is, actually – but I noted at the time how effective this “hidden loop” by James Lowe was off this maul break in the build-up to the decisive Leinster try.

It’s so well executed. Lowe starts off deep behind the play and runs a hard lateral line to offer his support to Byrne and makes a big gain when he takes the offload from Byrne. The pinch and pullback from the O’Brien Collective off the maul break compressed the Munster midfield and that opened up the angle for Byrne to pass to the extra man, James Lowe, who had broken around as a free player, unguarded by the winger who would have been guarding him on the blindside.

It’s a great scheme and it works perfectly here. I thought no more of it, other than how effective it had been off the maul in this instance.

So I went on to watch more of Leinster and zoned in on their home game against Northampton in the Champions Cup as I’d come to the decision that working out what Leinster do well is most visible in;

• Games where they have a lot of possession.
• Games where Ross Byrne is playing at #10.

Why Ross Byrne? When he plays at #10, he follows the Leinster game plan to the letter with little in the way of deviation. Sexton runs Leinster’s offence with an element of control that few flyhalves do and when Byrne fills in for him, I’ve found that the “strings” that control their play are a little more obvious.

Seven minutes in, I saw Lowe’s hidden loop off a lineout maul again.

This time it’s a little different. Henshaw’s running the pinch line this time – he’s more of a carrying threat than the O’Briens, so he draws the attention of two players on the angle – and that leaves Ringrose out wide for the pass off Lowe. The structure is very similar to the play in the Munster game and Leinster tried it again a few minutes later, to less success, but the concept was still there.

A few minutes later I noticed another loop, but this time in phase play.

Keep an eye on Dave Kearney in the following GIF.

Initially, I thought he was just getting back over to the right-wing but he’s not – he’s running a lateral hidden loop line that he runs behind Leinster’s forward interplay. When the ball gets released to Byrne, Kearney arcs around in support of the break and, if he got the pass here, I think he scores a try.

Kearney’s looping run gave Leinster an overlap almost out of nowhere and that’s something I’d noticed quite a bit – teams were consistently getting numbered up by Leinster and these hidden loops were the cause. Johnny Sexton used to be known for his loop runs but now Leinster’s attack loops around him.

When I looked back through Leinster’s work this season, you those loops everywhere. Even back in the Munster game. When you look at this passage of play in the second half, you can see Adam Byrne running the loop line behind Leinster’s set up play to create an overlap on the flank.

The loop line during phase play automatically creates an overload because the defending winger stays in place while Byrne (or Kearney, or Lowe, or Larmour) disappears off the radar, so to speak, before reappearing at the last minute as an extra man.

That action puts all three of Leinster’s backline in line at the edge of the Munster defensive line.

I’ve been working on this theory since June 21st 2020 so you can imagine my surprise when Felipe Contepomi just casually name-dropped these loops – or circle balls, as he called them – in an interview with Rugby World Magazine.

“I would always say in attack, you have to be creative. Why? Because defences become better and better and refuse to stay static. So you need to be creative, but you don’t have to change for the sake of changing or change everything, every year. You just have to make small changes that can bring differences. Sometimes simplicity is the key.

“If you have defences coming hard, sometimes instead of playing behind the back when now everyone is starting to read your play, you can start playing ‘circle balls’ (when a support player runs an arc from an inside position to take a pass on the outside shoulder) for example. They used to be played a few years ago but it comes and goes and maybe it’s not that you have to be innovative in bringing something completely different in. Or you can look at if you want to go through the defence and not around them now, for example.”

Reading this article might make it seem that Contepomi is talking about the Sexton loop but looking at Leinster over the last season would suggest that he’s actually talking about completely unhinging his back three to overload a position in the attacking line.

Here’s another example.

Leinster picked up a 4 on 2 overload on the edge of the Munster defence. Keenan drives hard across the field but it’s Lowe coming in off his wing that creates this loop.

If you look at the attacking set up laterally, James Lowe is Dan Goggin’s man to guard but when Lowe heads off infield, Goggin stays in place as you would expect. Goggin was selected on the wing for this game so, traditionally, that defensive position has a lot of north/south movement as you dip into the backfield and then step up into the edge space.

Could you guard Leinster – and Lowe’s – hidden loops by disengaging your right-winger on defensive plays to follow Lowe across the pitch?

That would necessitate that Munster’s #9 drops back into the backfield/secondary to guard against a kick down the line but you’d nearly take that risk and back your lineout if it meant that you shut down Leinster’s hidden loop.

I mean, look at how effective it is at overloading Northampton on a relatively basic forward progression across the field.

Look for the hidden loop runners at the start of the GIF.

Northampton have a pretty decent handle on Leinster’s edge attack as the ball hits off #9. If the line holds as it is now, you’d back the Saints to number up well enough with Leinster at this point as long as the defensive line keeps filing out as the ball progresses.

But those numbers are soon swallowed up by the loop running back three joining up with Lowe in the 15m channel.

A comfortable 4 on 4 becomes a very dangerous 6 on 4/3 on the outside edge with Leinster surging around the corner.

Leinster went for an offload play between Ringrose and Henshaw but they still had numbers after the ruck reset, with Doris running a tight screen decoy. It almost works.

I think if the Saints are worried about Sexton’s breaking threat as opposed to Byrne’s, I think Larmour and Lowe break through this gap.

If you watch Leinster this season, and you know what to look for, you’ll see these loops on almost every attacking sequence. Was this a reaction to their defeat against Saracens or a natural evolution of their game as Contepomi started to exert his influence?

Looking back at that defeat against Prime Saracens, I think you see elements of why a change was needed. Leinster didn’t lose all of the central collisions but they had a much tougher time of it in that position compared to any of the other teams they had played that season. I would say cumulatively, Leinster found it difficult to progress the ball through the forwards and that gave Saracens easier targets to defend against once the ball left to Sexton.

In this instance, you can see how a looping player would be useful for Sexton in this example to help bring Lowe into the game easier.

The ball will usually get released to Sexton, yes, but if he’s got six possible options when he has it – and the beef to carry the ball himself – it becomes very difficult to defend conventionally, as every single team who played Leinster up until March found to their cost.

Forward Shape

It’s hard to pigeon-hole Leinster into a specific forward shape like a 2-4-2 or a 1-3-3-1. Like with their looping patterns in the back three – which happen in tandem with their forward shape – it all depends on context and options.

Here’s a pretty good example of Leinster’s morphing forward shape in a central position. That central position is quite important because most of Leinster’s best work is done from centre-field ruck possession.

So, to break it down, the first shape you see off the ruck is a pretty standard 3-man forward pod with the flyhalf – almost always Sexton or Byrne – tucked in behind the first or second man in the pod, depending on the field position. If the initial ruck is inside the 15m channel, you typically won’t see Sexton or Byrne tucked in behind the pod because they stand in the link position to avoid shortening the Leinster attack. I’ll get to that in a minute.

That pod of three has a licence to interplay with each other in the form of tip-on passes or to carry into the third or fourth defender with the other two pod support players securing the ruck or acting as offload options. The pass out the back to the flyhalf doesn’t really happen all that often on non-transition phase play but it is a possibility that has to be in the back of the defence’s mind.

The interesting part of the three-man pod is that Leinster often run a hidden second phase off that first pod. You can see it building in the above image. Ross Byrne slides into the link position with Van Der Flier outside him and Henshaw lurking in the secondary. James Ryan circles around to complete the pod by the time the ruck recycles.

Byrne carries the ball in this instance, but he’s got radiating options. He can hit Ryan on his inside shoulder, Van Der Flier arriving hard on his outside shoulder or pass the ball back to Henshaw on the slide. Leinster often add two forwards to the middle pod and use that to lengthen the play for Sexton or Byrne to kick or assess their loop options if the ball is quick enough.

Here’s a decent example of that.

Leinster will also run a play that looks quite like a 3-1-1 with someone like Doris, Cronin or Van Der Flier as the wide forward but that is often a 3-2-1 or a 3-3-1 by the time the ball leaves the three pod because Leinster loop their forwards around to join the middle pod quite late.

The benefits of this are profound. Defences often struggle to track players that arrive at a position after the ball has left the scrumhalf’s hands, especially if they arrive from the direction of the previous ruck. Leinster smuggle forwards into these pods quite late too, and they’ll try this kind of play from anywhere. Here’s an example of this against Lyon, with Ross Byrne again filling in at flyhalf. Leinster aren’t dropping a passer in behind the narrow 15m position – pretty standard. Keep an eye on Josh Van Der Flier.

Did you see the loop? Van Der Flier starts from behind the initial pod of three and arrives late to the pod developing outside Byrne.

The trap springs. Ruddock runs an inside line with a pump fake from Byrne. Van Der Flier arrives late to hold the second last forward defender and that creates the isolation for Ringrose behind the pod.

Leinster will work on these patterns repeatedly. They’ve got variations where, if they have momentum coming across the field, they’ll work a switch pinch move in combination with their looping back three to put together big linebreaks like this.

Leinster are incredibly skilled individually and very well drilled on the various concepts that they run. While it looks quite complex, all the players know what their role is depending on the specific position. If the ball is in the 15m channel and it isn’t a transition, forwards form up in a three off #9 while the middle forms up with whoever is available.

If there’s a forward in the far wide channel, stay there, you could be useful but it’s not fully necessary. Other forwards that aren’t in the ruck or forming off #9, cycle to the middle to be an option for #10 or to the near touchline to hold width and offer a possible three pod off the next ruck.

In between the 15s, there has to be consistent movement. Set up off #9, #10 slides off the first pod, and the wingers loop, if #10 advises.

Once the first ruck is secure, #10 slides into space and makes a decision on the next option – carry himself, inside shoulder pass, outside shoulder pass, outside ball to the midfielder or run a pinch play off the forwards directly and surge around the corner if enough attacking assets are available.

These are just a few looks at some of the basic concepts that Leinster use. Knowing them is one thing, stopping them is another.

I think there are two direct ways to combat Leinster – well, three actually.

The obvious one is to overpower them in the forwards over the full course of the 80 minutes as Saracens did in last year’s Champions Cup final.

When you have a ball-carrying rotation of Brad Barritt, Titi Lamositele, Mako Vunipola, Jamie George, Vincent Koch, Will Skelton and, the best forward ball carrier in Europe, Billy Vunipola, you’ll overpower most sides.

In the above example, there isn’t a whole lot that Leinster could have done better. Saracens lined up Billy Vunipola on the second phase after a lineout and he piled into Henshaw and Sexton for a massive gain. Saracens then surged down the tramline through Goode and Williams.

Late in the first half, Saracens really began to overpower Leinster in the tight exchanges. Barrett set the platform and then they piled massive numbers around the fringes.

All this happened while one of their best ball carriers – Mako Vunipola – was off the field with a game-ending ankle injury.

Once Saracens settled into their power game, Leinster began to look quite ordinary during the course of that final. You could see Sexton going to the well on a few plays but it had little effect. That always happens when you’re losing but I was left with an impression that Saracens always had too much for Leinster over the 80 minutes. Leinster started well but the power began to tell after a while.

I was incredibly interested in the quarter-final as it was pre-pandemic because Leinster vs Prime Saracens was a clash between, genuinely, the two best teams in the competition. After watching both sides quite closely (with two Red Eyes and multiple frame by frame GIF runs on Saracens in particular) I had a feeling that Leinster might run into a brick wall in that quarter-final, especially with Saracens having little else to play for. The power differential that affected Leinster in the 2019 final was still there, in my opinion, especially in the absence of Dan Leavy.

But not everyone has the power and technical proficiency in the pack that Saracens do. In fact, I would say that nobody does, for good reason – it’s incredibly expensive to contract that kind of size and talent and stay under a salary cap. From a Munster perspective, we’ve certainly gone out and beefed up our pack and our general size overall. Salanoa might not be featuring for Munster straight away but he reminds me a lot of Titi Lamositele, the guy who started for Saracens in most of their big games over the last season with Koch finishing. He’s got the kind of power and weight that Munster need in the short, medium and long term and the same can be said for Keynon Knox. Both need development but they’ve got the kind of heft that is associated with winning rugby teams in the last half of the 2010s.

The signings of RG Snyman and Damian De Allende significantly increase Munster’s power on both sides of the ball, too, but I think that alone won’t be enough to regularly topple Leinster. Going the Saracens route when it comes to size isn’t realistic over the next season – although I have some hope on what’s coming up through the Munster academy when it comes to size and power – we’ll have to match Leinster’s game plan.

The first realistic way we have to combat Leinster on-field is to attack the joints of their attacking structure.

From a defensive perspective, we’ve consistently struggled to handle Leinster’s centre-field dominance in an environment where we can’t successfully attack their breakdown. Our PRO14 defeats to Leinster in the RDS have illustrated that pretty clearly and while our one game against them this season had a lot of rotation on both sides, a lot of the issues translated over. Defensively, I think there are two ways to hurt Leinster.
We have to attack their three pod shape off #9 and break their momentum.

This can be done by loading up on size to match Furlong/Porter/Healy/Leavy/Conan in this area and then attacking the collision point breakdown with a second man jackal. The new breakdown interpretation that we’ve seen in Super Rugby should give Munster a little more collision parity than we’ve seen against Leinster over the last few seasons.

Over the last three seasons, “surviving the cleanout” has been a consistent issue for Munster against Leinster. We’ve tried to attack their breakdown but under the old view of the breakdown laws, our ability to get hands-on the ball was nullified by Leinster’s heavy breakdown presence.

Keep an eye on Ed Byrne’s and Devin Toner’s support line at this ruck – borderline side entry in both cases – and it’s a potential weakness given the way Leinster like to chop-up the field with this kind of starter play off #9.

Either way, with the ball slowed down off #9, Leinster were forced to kick in this instance and the complete slow-down of the ball even managed to stop one of their killer plays. Watch James Lowe key in his loop route to the scrumhalf.

He even sets off on the hidden loop route, but without the momentum of quick ball to start the phase off, it peters out into a box kick reset.

Attacking that breakdown off #9 is a key way of slowing down Leinster’s movement. This opens up a whole new world of importance for a player like Chris Cloete, who is a breakdown dominant fetcher. He is incredibly dangerous at attacking these setup rucks as a second arrival jackal.

This example from the Cardiff game would be a penalty at 10:00 rather than waiting until 10:04 when Cloete eventually managed to rip the ball free. Against Leinster, he’d struggle to survive the cleanout in this instance because of the size and late-arriving power of their front five but under the new interpretation, he doesn’t have to survive it. He just has to lift. The same goes for Beirne, Cronin, O’Mahony and CJ Stander.

Leinster are still dangerous off the kick chase – the likes of Dave Kearney is particularly good in this area of the game – but you’d back yourself to defend box kicks and counter.

The key is stopping them physically at the source of their starter plays and then getting that jackal into demand a cleanout. We want to win the ball back and counter, yes – and it’s particularly dangerous in the above example when Lowe is on his route – but we want to stress the cleanout angle of the covering support player too.

We want Leinster playing more off #10 directly from wider ruck positions because the hidden loop is most effective when it loops around 1/2 set up rucks. I think that making Leinster play more off Sexton directly will bring Farrell and De Allende into the game more and set up wider collisions that I think we’re better placed to win against this Leinster side.

We’ve invested heavily to muscle up our front five and midfield and defensively, both will be important when looking to hurt Leinster but it’ll be how well we utilize the extra time at the breakdown will be key – without accuracy from our primary jackals there, we’ll face the same problems we always have.

***

Hurting Leinster on transition is eminently possible but I think the signings of De Allende and Snyman will give Munster to play with more width and central dominance. I’ve already discussed these concepts here. I will argue that Jean Kleyn is a vital part of Munster’s future plans in the short and medium-term. The last three seasons have revealed that we need a set second-row partner for Jean Kleyn. It had been thought that Tadhg Beirne was that man but I think we’re far more likely to see a combination of Snyman and Kleyn in the second row with Beirne operating as a half-lock in the back row against the biggest sides.

We want Kleyn operating as a heavy support forward over offensive breakdowns, mauler, defensive hitter, tighthead scrummager and as a close-range hit up player. What we don’t want is for him to be one of our two dominant ball carriers in the front five. For me, that drags CJ Stander away from where he could be a devasting runner for us. Kleyn’s physicality is something that we’ll only see the real value of when he’s allowed to focus on what he’s good at, rather than being the only tight hitter across 4/5/6.

He’ll also be a key part of our lineout as a lifter, front jumper and mauler.

Lineout dominance on both sides of the throw is going to be a big part of any attempt to beat Leinster and Beirne, Snyman, O’Mahony and Kleyn in combination with De Allende and Farrell running off the lineout give Munster the weaponry to hurt any opponent we’re likely to face in the PRO14 or Europe in the next year.

Snyman and De Allende will be key parts outside the set-piece too.

De Allende (and Farrell) will allow us to run with Beirne and O’Mahony in the back row and not lose any ball-carrying impact. Snyman’s ability to run devastating ball carrying lines with real pace off #9 or #10 will be a huge part of freeing up impact carrying assets like Stander.

Munster had already started to run a wide arrowhead pod of three off #9 in the early part of the season.

The point of the arrow or the outside shoulder runner is where Snyman is incredibly dangerous. With Kleyn patrolling the inside shoulder, you’ve got a monster cleanout and collision winner that can generate momentum off the contact to release the wider 1-3-3-1 variant we ran at times this season.

If you watch the first breakdown, you’ll notice Holland running that outside shoulder line on the arrowhead. He then loops around to provide an inside shoulder option after the midfield hit up.

If we run a similar style after the restart, the flyhalf will have RG Syman and Damian De Allende as his options in this picture, with the likes of Farrell and Conway attacking outside.

This is why you bring in world-class talent in those positions and in the way that we run our plays. It isn’t just what Snyman and De Allende bring in their positions, it’s what they allow to happen alongside them. This season, for example, Chris Farrell was often used as a primary ball carrier – the guy who narrows the opposition to release others – when I would argue that he is most effective as a strike runner who hits a line after the line has already been narrowed.

That isn’t really Rory Scannell’s game as an inside centre. He’s certainly a capable ball carrier but I wouldn’t say it’s an insult to say that he’s not Damian De Allende when it comes to ball carrying potency and how that potency might influence the defence. Damian De Allende will allow Chris Farrell to take on the ball wider and with attention split onto his midfield partner.

Snyman can free up Kleyn, Stander, Beirne and others in the same way.

But all this will be for nought if we haven’t got our squad right, and I think we have the potential to build something quite special.

Foundations

Munster’s last few seasons have seen a significant trimming of the squad in a number of areas. Some of these have been unplanned – Simon Zebo and Donnacha Ryan, for example – while other departures have been players retiring or moved on to pastures new.

If we assess Munster’s current squad under the same terms that we looked at the 2009 squad, there are a few areas that stand out to me.

Let’s get our terminology in place before we get down to my assessment of the squad.

Priority 1: Important player to be replaced within one season
Priority 2:Important player to be replaced within two seasons
Priority 3:Important player to be replaced within three seasons
Core 1: Important first-choice player in peak age that likely has four seasons of peak performance remaining.
Squad 2: High squad player in peak age that likely has four+ seasons of peak performance remaining.
Foundation Player: Young talent (20-24) expected to play for five + seasons and transition to Core 1 or Squad 2.
Potential Foundation: Talent ID’d young player (18-23) that has the potential to ascend to regular first-team exposure as a Core 1 or Squad 2 type player.
Assess 1: A player who I can’t give a fair rating to based on not seeing enough of them in a senior Munster shirt.
(A): Academy player
(S): Young player already in the senior squad.

With that in mind, let’s have a look at the senior squad.

Player	Position	Age in Jan 1 2021	Grade	Entering a Contract Year in 2021?	Potential Future Replacement
Dave Kilcoyne	LHP	32	CORE 1/PRIORITY 2	NO	Josh Wycherley (A)
James Cronin	LHP	30	PRIORITY 3	YES	James French (A)
Jeremy Loughman	LHP	25	SQUAD 2	NO	N/A
Liam O'Connor	LHP	25	SQUAD 2	NO	N/A
Niall Scannell	HK	28	SQUAD 2	YES	Scott Buckley (A)
Rhys Marshall	HK	28	SQUAD 2	YES	N/A
Kevin O'Byrne	HK	29	SQUAD 2	NO	N/A
Diarmuid Barron	HK	22	ASSESS 2	YES	N/A
Stephen Archer	THP	32	PRIORITY 2	NO	Keynan Knox (S)
John Ryan	THP	32	PRIORITY 2	NO	Roman Salanoa (S)
Keynan Knox	THP	21	FOUNDATION 1	NO	N/A
Roman Salanoa	THP	23	POTENTIAL FOUNDATION	NO	N/A
Jean Kleyn	L	27	CORE 1	NO	Eoin O'Connor/Paddy Kelly (A)
RG Snyman	L	25	CORE 1/PRIORITY 2	NO	Tom Ahern (A)
Billy Holland	L	35	PRIORITY 1	YES	N/A
Tadhg Beirne	L/F	28	CORE 1	NO	N/A
Fineen Wycherley	L/F	23	POTENTIAL FOUNDATION	YES	N/A
Gavin Coombes	F	23	POTENTIAL FOUNDATION	YES	N/A
Peter O'Mahony	F	31	PRIORITY 3	YES	N/A
Tommy O'Donnell	F	33	PRIORITY 1	YES	John Hodnett (A)
Chris Cloete	F	29	SQUAD 2	NO	Jack Daly (A)
Jack O'Donoghue	F/8	26	SQUAD 2	YES	Alex Kendellan (A)
CJ Stander	8	30	PRIORITY 3	YES	Jack O'Sullivan (S)
Jack O'Sullivan	8	22	POTENTIAL FOUNDATION	NO	N/A
Conor Murray	SH	31	PRIORITY 2	NO	Craig Casey (S)
Craig Casey	SH	21	FOUNDATION 1	YES	N/A
Neil Cronin	SH	28	SQUAD 2	YES	N/A
Nick McCarthy	SH	25	SQUAD 2	YES	N/A
Joey Carbery	F	25	FOUNDATION 1	NO	Jack Crowley/Ben Healy/Jake Flannery (A)
JJ Hanrahan	F	27	SQUAD 2	YES	N/A
Damian De Allende	M	29	CORE 1/PRIORITY 2	NO	N/A
Chris Farrell	M	27	CORE 1	YES	N/A
Rory Scannell	M	27	SQUAD 2	YES	N/A
Alex McHenry	M	23	ASSESS 1	YES	N/A
Dan Goggin	M/W	26	SQUAD 2	NO	N/A
Andrew Conway	W/FB	29	PRIORITY 3	NO	Calvin Nash (S) /Jonathan Wren (A)
Shane Daly	W/FB	24	FOUNDATION 1	YES	N/A
Liam Coombes	W	23	ASSESS 1	YES	N/A
Keith Earls	W	33	PRIORITY 1	YES	Shane Daly (S)/Sean French (A)
Calvin Nash	W	23	POTENTIAL FOUNDATION	YES	N/A
Darren Sweetnam	W	27	SQUAD 2	YES	N/A
Matt Gallagher	FB/W	24	ASSESS 1	NO	Jake Flannery (A)
Mike Haley	FB	26	SQUAD 2	YES	Jake Flannery (A)

I think we’re quite fortunate in that we have a few clear foundational talents already in the senior squad. Keynan Knox, Craig Casey, Jack O’Sullivan, Shane Daly and Joey Carbery. I think Salanoa, Coombes and Wycherley certainly have the ability to be considered Potential Foundation players and I think that will become clear one way or the other over the next season or so.

I would also class Jack Crowley, John Hodnett, Ben Healy, Jake Flannery, Josh Wycherley, James French, Scott Buckley and Alex Kendellan as potential foundational talents but all of them will need to be scaled up to more senior action this season. I’d also put Eoin O’Connor and Paddy Kelly in the conversation but I’ll need to see a lot more of them in A level rugby and, in O’Connor’s case, U20 action. There are also a few players in the sub-academy that I’m quite excited by in the medium to long term but it’s too early to be talking about them in any detail.

I would posit that this season is a massive one for Sean French, Eoghan Clarke, Jack Daly and Jonathan Wren.

All three have a lot of potential but they’ll need to maximise every opportunity in training and during a congested upcoming season to nail down a place in the Munster outside back depth chart and openside depth chart respectively.

The back three will be an area of flux over the next two seasons. I think Shane Daly and Calvin Nash have foundational ability. I think Nash, in particular, is another good season away from nailing down Foundational status as he showed in a run of games last year that he’s got the potential to be a complete right-wing. Shane Daly, on the other hand, showed he’s got the ability to be a long term option for Munster on the left-wing or, perhaps, in midfield. He’s got elite size and athleticism and has already shown an ability to score tries in his breakthrough season. Daly was very close to making the development list in this year’s Six Nations and I think this year will be where he nails down a starting place, barring injury.

Andrew Conway has recently signed a three-year extension that’ll take him up to 32 years of age, which is why I have down as a Priority 3 player. On the other wing, Keith Earls is still highly productive but at 33 years of age in a contract year, I think Munster have to be thinking about the future of that position. Shane Daly would seem to be an immediate replacement but that #11 jersey is one that I think Sean French has potential to impress in too if he can work his way onto the pitch.

Darren Sweetnam is another interesting player who’s coming close to his prime in a contract year. He’s shown that he’s got test level potential but he’s been unlucky with badly timed injuries and could well find an opportunity to rise up from being a very good squad player this season.

At fullback, I would say that this is a vital year for Mike Haley as he enters into a contract expiry. He’s Ireland capped – which might limit his options outside Ireland – but he wasn’t able to force his way into the post-Kearney conversation for Six Nations 2020. There’s still time for him to do that, of course, because he’s a good player but Matt Gallagher – two years younger and Irish qualified through his grandparents – comes in with a lot of excitement going on what he showed at Saracens. Jake Flannery is a player with foundational potential at fullback (and flyhalf) and I think he’ll get a big opportunity to slot in as a playmaking fullback during the coming season.

Hitters and Movers

In midfield, I think the addition of Damian De Allende makes for a clear case that he and Farrell will be the Category 1 pairing going forward. Dan Goggin is a highly valuable Squad 1 player that can easily step up to the Category 1 matchday starting XV without losing a whole lot and I think his recent extension reflects that.

This is a very important year for Rory Scannell as he heads into a contract extension decision. He has been Munster’s first choice #12 for the last four seasons but he has yet to make that step up to become a regular international or regular wider squad member. He’s a good player – and a very good option at PRO14 level in particular – but I would posit that, if he had the immediate potential to step up to the active test consideration alongside Henshaw/Aki/McCloskey, then the signing of Damian De Allende wouldn’t have been pushed through. The 50/22 rule being adopted in the Northern Hemisphere could be a great boost to Scannell’s prospects as a left-footed kicking second-five but I think he’s in a tough spot at the moment. He’ll get a fair bit of time this season both starting and covering but I think that he and Munster have some difficult decisions to make in the coming months as to his role and place on the depth chart long term.

Chris Farrell looks like a priority resigning at #13 and Alex McHenry will have opportunities to show his ability in both midfield slots throughout the season.

Craig Casey and Joey Carbery look like a long term halfback pairing, as long as they aren’t undone by injury. Casey has clear foundational ability and he looks like the obvious long term partner and replacement for Conor Murray.

Neil Cronin looks like a super solid squad player and Nick McCarthy has a big season ahead of him, and a few decisions to make.

The future at #10 is less clear. Munster have two or three high potential young players that aren’t Joey Carbery and a lot hinges on how Carbery recovers from essentially two seasons lost to a variety of injuries. Ben Healy and Jack Crowley have big potential and with Munster carrying only two senior scrumhalves this season – with Carbery likely to be away with Ireland if fit – there’s going to be opportunities for them to rapidly move up the depth chart and onto senior deals.

JJ Hanrahan has been incredibly valuable for Munster since his return from Northampton but he faces a tough decision this contract year if Joey Carbery returns fit and stays fit long-term. I would expect JJ to want to and be re-signed to compete for that #10 shirt but a lot will depend on what kind of test window league schedule we have going forward, something that applies to a lot of positions.

Front Row Succession

The chains of succession look pretty clear in the front row. Dave Kilcoyne and James Cronin are the current #1 pairing for the Category 1 team and the Dave Kilcoyne that we saw in the World Cup warmups last year is a top-end, international standard prop in the prime of his career.

His age profile would put him in line to be replaced inside the next two seasons – along with Cronin – and Munster has a number of options to choose from when it comes to medium and long term succession options. Wycherley and French look like a good future combination, especially if French continues to develop as a ball carrier although questions remain as to whether he’ll convert over to THP.

O’Connor and Loughman are contracted for the next two seasons and I have a feeling that they’ll be assessed in tandem with (a) Cronin and Kilcoyne phasing out and (b) Wycherley and French scaling up. Both players have shown good stuff over the last few seasons.

At tighthead prop, it looks pretty settled. Ryan and Archer are the current senior pair heading into their mid-30s. Both are quality operators – Ryan is a hugely aggressive scrummager and mobile option around the field and Archer has developed into hugely reliable squad player and all-rounder. As a pair, they complement each other well. Keynan Knox is a prop forward with foundational ability as a scrummager, ball carrier and all-round cornerstone of the Munster pack for the next 10 years. Salanoa, recently signed from Leinster, has the size and power to be a vital component to our 80-minute plans sooner rather than later.

He’ll be Irish qualified this season and looks like a player that could easily play at or around that 20 stone mark. That kind of power doesn’t come along very often so it’s a move that made sense for Munster’s long term aims in the position. There’ll be a push on to find an academy prospect at tighthead over the next two seasons and there are a few promising players that fit the bill.

At hooker, 2021 looks like a year of decisions. All of our hookers bar Kevin O’Byrne are off-contract in 2021 so it looks like an area where one or two of the three senior hookers plus Eoghan Clarke in Year 3 of the academy could be squeezed out.

Will we hang onto Rhys Marshall long-term? He’s a great player but he’s racked up the injuries since he last re-signed. Both parties will have to make a decision here but I’d lean towards retaining Marshall unless Barron really blows the doors off this season. I think Diarmuid Barron’s promotion to a senior deal was an interesting move this offseason and it’ll give him a big opportunity to show where he’s at over the course of the season. All the basics look to be there for Barron, so it’ll be interesting to see if he can scale up to be a regular option at senior level.

Niall Scannell looked like a long-term option for Munster a few seasons ago but I think he’s plateaued in the last season. Strangely enough, I think the planned emergence of Knox over the next season and the return of a fully fit Kilcoyne could return Scannell to what he’s good at – being a heavy support forward. His scrummaging and lineout is generally really good but I’ve found his work as a primary ball carrier this season to be below average. I think when he’s removed from carrying the ball 8+ times, he’s got the ability to influence a lot more off the ball – defence, offensive breakdown, close-range carrying and defence. That version of Niall Scannell starts for Ireland, in my opinion.

Kevin O’Byrne is locked in for the next two years and I think his extension was richly deserved. He’s been our best hooker over the last season in my opinion and adds real variety to our starting combination.

Long term, Scott Buckley looks like a real talent and I’ll be keeping a close eye on his development. Eoghan Clarke, on the other hand, needs a big A season but I’ve always liked what I’ve seen from him so I’d hope he takes whatever chances come his way.

Engine Room & Strike Team

I think a Category 1 starting second-row of Jean Kleyn and RG Snyman makes a tonne of sense. Snyman is one of the best loosehead locks in the game and his versatility in where he carries the ball will go a long way to freeing up our carriers elsewhere.

Long term, Thomas Ahern looks like a ready-made replacement for RG Snyman if his stay is limited to two seasons. Billy Holland is a Priority 1 replacement at this stage but he’ll cover an important role as a starting or replacement lock this season and his longevity and veteran presence will be missed, assuming he finishes up at the end of this season.

Tadhg Beirne will slot in at 4 and in the back row this season and, like Kleyn, could really be re-invigorated by Snyman’s arrival.

If we assume that this is Billy Holland’s last season at Munster, then Fineen Wycherley is the only senior second-row who is out of contract this season. I think Fineen enters this renegotiation period on an upward curve and I’d expect him to re-sign pretty handily. He’s got a very high ceiling and I would expect him to fill in at lock and in that half-lock slot as a defensive stopper and support forward. I think his ball carrying is a work-on for him but he’s improved a lot in this area over the last season so I think another pre-season and the lockdown might have helped him throw on an extra few KG. I think this season will tell a lot about his long-term potential.

Munster didn’t re-sign Darren O’Shea or Sean O’Connor over the lockdown and that leaves a fairly clear progression pathway for Eoin O’Connor and Paddy Kelly, who are two young locks that I’ve got a lot of time for. Eoin O’Connor, in particular, is a guy who I think has the frame to become a serious athlete but he needs time to build on that frame. I’m excited to see what both can do over the course of this year’s A-competition.

The second-row looks pretty settled but the back-row is anything but.

Jack O’Sullivan is a foundational talent, for me, and he’s joined in that conversation by John Hodnett, Gavin Coombes and Alex Kendellan with more talent simmering away in the sub-academy. The chains of succession look pretty settled there but there are questions over the short and medium-term that will need an answer quickly enough.

Chris Cloete is contracted until the end of next season and he’ll never have a better opportunity than this season to become a dominant player on the European stage if the current breakdown interpretation holds in the medium term.

Tommy O’Donnell is 33 and is looking like a Priority 1 replacement for me as he enters the final year of his three-year deal.

Gavin Coombes is a player who I think has Foundational potential and this season will go along way to show where he’s at in that conversation. Everything I’ve seen from him on-field this season hints at an embryonic top-player with test level potential. A big push from him this year could see him radically change his status.

Jack O’Donoghue has shown real versatility over the last few seasons and he’s recovered well from the long-term knee injury suffered against Leinster. He had just forced himself into the international squad prior to the lockdown and it was a proper reward for the work he’s put in on the technical side of his game. His offensive and defensive lineout along with his maul defence have been a real plus for him since his return from injury and I’d expect him to be a priority re-sign for two or three seasons. Can he scale up to regular international contention? It’s a question mark, for sure, but I think he’s turned into a real rounded player as he’s aged. For me, an extra bit of pop in contact would put him over the top and make him a real option at test level but we’ll have to see how he looks when rugby returns.

The big issues come with our senior internationals, in my opinion.

CJ Stander and Peter O’Mahony are now entering the edge of Priority 3 replacement status as they come off three-year IRFU deals signed back in 2017 at the age of 30 and 31 respectively.

I would argue that both are still solid first choice options at test level and I’d expect both to be re-signed on two-year central deals. There is a nagging doubt in the back of my mind that one or both could get big offers from abroad that might be hard to match post-COVID and impossible to begrudge if they took up the chance for a big pay-day after a possible Lions tour.

The real question is who steps up to replace them, both in the short and medium-term. Stander is still our most important ball carrier and O’Mahony is the captain and a key part of our offensive and defensive lineout, as well as being chronically underrated around the field. Both players are outstanding jackals and their worth could well be re-established around the field off the back of that ability.

Whether it’s next year or in three years time, replacing either player will not be easy.

CJ Stander’s reliability, durability and consistent top-level impact on both sides of the ball are truly world-class and anyone looking to replace him will have their work cut out, both for Munster and Ireland.

O’Mahony has been Munster’s captain since he was 23 years of age and, despite years of criticism from people who don’t – and likely never will – understand what he brings to a side but I’ll put it like this; as long as the lineout is the source 50+% of tries scored, a back-row with Peter O’Mahony’s offensive and defensive ability in that area of the game will be valued by actual coaches, rather than ESPN stat watchers. Combine that with O’Mahony’s ball-handling and impact on both sides of the breakdown and you’ll realise how difficult it’ll be to replicate him like for like.

Long term, I think Jack O’Sullivan, Alex Kendellan and perhaps someone like Daniel Okeke in sub-academy will press hardest on Stander in the coming years. Gavin Coombes and Jack O’Donoghue aren’t like for like replacements for O’Mahony, but they both offer elements of his game while also adding a lot on their own.

A lot will depend on our style of play and what options we go for on the blindside over the next two years. 

***

Derailing Leinster will not be easy, but we’ll hopefully get two cracks at it in the near future. From a squad planning perspective, I think we’re just a few pieces away from being right where we need to be in the medium to long term and with Snyman and De Allende, we’re all set to win right now with no excuses. 

The biggest lesson I’ve taken from this series has been that winning doesn’t just happen in the 80 minutes.

That’s a recipe to winning the odd game here and there, not for competing at the top end over the long term. That commitment to winning has to happen over a three or four-year cycle and the moves that lead to winning often aren’t noticed at the time. It’s cutting people that might be decent players and trainers but that ultimately drag you down to mediocrity like boiling frogs.

The premise is that if a frog is put suddenly into boiling water, it will jump out, but if the frog is put in tepid water which is then brought to a boil slowly, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death.

It’s about bringing in the right guy, rather than the guy from the right place until you have the right guy from the right place. In that regard, I’ve also learned that rhetoric on recruitment and quotas of home-grown players is entirely contextual. When you’re winning for years, it’s easier to go completely home-grown but all it takes is six bad months to turn gold into lead.

A bad coaching hire, a foundational player that doesn’t work out, an unplanned departure, an unplanned series of injuries at bad times to Core players and all your hard work can cycle back to zero. Then you have to go looking for options abroad to fill a gap, or kick start you or, god forbid, force you back into dreaded “transition”.

None of the people who were involved with Munster in 2008/09 planned to go a decade without reaching another Heineken Cup final but all it took was a few small moments here and there to tilt us away from winners to perennial semi-finalists and no better.

Can Munster derail Leinster? Yes. It will not be easy. It will require a bit of good luck for us and bad luck for them, but that’s always been the way of the world when it comes to one team superseding another.

No team has a rightful place at the top of the club game in Europe. Only those who are ruthless, brassnecked and bold enough to gamble on themselves do it consistently. Leinster showed me that in 2009, 2011, 2012 and 2018.

Now it’s Munster’s time to do the same.

#SUAF