This is an away game for Munster, certainly, but I’m not sure it’s a home game for Zebre either.
It came as a bit of surprise this week when I went about checking but this game isn’t being played in Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi in Parma, it’s taking place in the Stadio Giovanni Mari in Legnano, Milan as part of Milano Rugby Week.
When you play Zebre, it can be easy to fall into an idea of what they’re supposed to be rather than what they actually are this season. This is probably the best time to play Zebre given they’re missing 11 players to the Italian national team and a further 8 to injury but I really like what Michael Bradley has been building in Parma over the last year or two. He’s brought in players like Renton and Brummer – the half pairing that Munster will be facing here – along with guys like Mick Kearney, Ian Nagle and Junior Laloifi. They’ve shipped a few beatings, yes, but they have two really good results on their resume (two good wins over the Cheetahs and Dragons) and some gritty performances against Benetton and at home to Leinster, where they only lost 3-0. Yes, that’s the correct scoreline. Even last week against Glasgow, they were competitive for the first 45 minutes or so, but I’ll get to that later.
The last time Munster played Zebre in Parma, it was on a mucky, heavy pitch in filthy conditions. Naturally, there wasn’t much in the way of rugby played and, as a result, the game was a lot closer than the 32-7 scoreline suggested.
The weather this time out is scheduled to be much better and the pitch in Legnano is pretty decent and won’t have had a lot of heavy traffic on it over the winter. That should be an advantage to Munster but Zebre have some ballplayers too, and they’ll relish the cleaner conditions – at least initially.
This game is a bit of a swing moment in the conference given the breakdown of games. The Scarlets (on 32 points) have a home banker against the Southern Kings but the clincher is going on in Murrayfield. If Connacht can rumble Edinburgh there – a tough ask, but without their internationals, Edinburgh are certainly vulnerable – a bonus-point win for Munster could put us top of the conference on 40 points with the Scarlets visiting Thomond Park next week and the upcoming possibility of playing Edinburgh a week removed from a potential Challenge Cup semi-final in May.
But all that will be much harder to obtain if Munster can’t do the business in Milan this Friday.
The biggest threat in this game from a defensive perspective is Zebre’s back five and halfbacks.
Nagle and Kearney are two experienced operators with good set-piece basics and every reason to want to show up with a big performance. Zebre’s backrow are all internationals and all of them are capable of hurting Munster at close range or in certain kinds of transition – Tuivati in particular. At half-back, they’ve got the impressive Kiwi, Josh Renton and he’s a player who’s really impressed me when I’ve watched Zebre this season. He’s got a nice pass, a decent kicking game and a very dangerous break for any sloppy pillars close to the ruck.
As for Zebre collectively, it’s hard to judge. I really liked what I saw against the Cheetahs a few weeks ago but that side featured a lot of their internationals, and they are mostly absent for this one. That isn’t to say that this Zebre side can’t hurt you – they can – especially on transition.
Nothing spectacular here but they all know their roles when the transition occurs and they get the ball wide to the danger men.
They’re also dangerous on close-range lineout mauls with their low centre of gravity back-row capable of breaking off any scrappy mauls for big gains. Breakdown and tackle discipline in our Q2/Q3 on defensive sets will be vitally important in preventing easy access to our 22.
How do we get at Zebre?
Well, you look at where Zebre think they’re weak and, for me, that appears to be their work in backfield coverage but it’s also where they are strongest – returning kick transitions. If you had a side that was good on kick transition but not necessarily good under the high ball or in covering backfield space effectively, how would you structure your Q2/Q3 defence?
You’d use a 12UP-3DEEP, as Zebre do.
This set up gives you big, natural zone coverage in the backfield and a lot of transition options on loosely returned kicks.
It dissuades the opposition from chipping too expansively over the top of Zebre’s – quite aggressive -blitz or driving too many kicks for touch at an angle.
It ups the difficulty of targeting box kicks down the tramlines and squeezes the margin of error.
But with that system comes obvious drawbacks and a particular weakness to screened runners off a dominant centre field ruck position.
A 12UP primary line punishes poor folds in central positions and Zebre’s pack conditioning on multiphase possessions can create big spacing for Munster to target on the edges off screened runners.
Can we get a few poor reads from Balekana, Bruno and Elliot? Absolutely. Can we expect a drop off from Tuivati and Mbanda after a few high tempo phases? It’s not the tackles they make, it’s the tackles they aren’t even in the vicinity to even miss. This will stress the handling of Wycherley and O’Shea in the pod of three off #9 but I think the width and pace of Casey’s passing will be a key part of accessing Zebre’s edge.
I think that Zebre’s bench is a real weakness for them too. This time of year necessitates Zebre to call up a number of players from the Italian domestic league (mainly Calvisano and Fiamme Oro) making their debut or really early on in their pro-career. That could be an area for Munster to pile on the pressure once Zebre start to transition to the bench.
