Munster involved in a top-of-the-table clash in the URC?
After the November break but before Christmas?
I was trying to remember the last time this happened, because it hadn’t happened in the last three seasons — the only timeframe I can consistently remember, being old and forgetful — and I finally found it.
Connacht vs Munster in the old PRO14 Conference B back in 2019. So, not really a top-of-the-table clash, just a top-of-the-conference entanglement.
Before that, it was December 26th, 2016, when Munster played Leinster in Thomond Park in the old PRO12. Maybe I’m wrong. That’s the limit of my Google-Fu.
Essentially, my point is, we haven’t had this billing a lot at this point in the season, so it’s there to be embraced. The two best teams in the league are going one-on-one, and someone’s 100% record has to go.
And we’ve selected accordingly.
The construction of the modern-day URC schedule has built in “off points”, in between intense rounds of week-to-week action. November is a natural break during the test window before the addition of European competition ratchets everything back up from the end of November until the end of January. It’s a killer 10-week bloc of games back-to-back-to-back that defines the context of the rest of your season, but as ever, how you come into that bloc is just as important.
In the last three seasons, Munster have started this seasonal sprint with a limp. Last season, we came into it crawling. We parted ways with the head coach and lineout coach at the end of October and spent November literally figuring out what the first training session would look like before we played the Lions in Thomond Park. Who were we trying to become? We didn’t really know, but that game was the beginning of something approaching clarity. The carnage of the previous two months could be put behind us, at least in part.
This season, it’s radically different. Clarity. Momentum and, more importantly, wins on the board.
But momentum is a fleeting thing. We know that.
Ultimately, what momentum actually is is the belief that what you’re doing session-to-session, week-to-week, is working on matchday. That breeds confidence. Belief. But that belief has to be maintained. At every point in the five URC games (plus win over Argentina XV), Munster have shown that belief by winning all three of our home games despite, arguably, playing poorly for most of them.
We found a way to win, despite spending the majority of all three games losing on the scoreboard until late in the game.
Clayton McMillan is well aware of this. He spoke yesterday about needing to instil “dread” in teams who rock up to Limerick or Cork — that starts against the Stormers, who have started the season incredibly well. They aren’t just winning games, either; they are blowing teams away.
Now that can be somewhat misleading when we go game to game. Going teamsheet for teamsheet, their best result so far this season was either their nilling of Leinster on the opening day of the season at home, or their dominant win over a decent Benetton side in Treviso right before the November break.
In a lot of ways, we’ll be the strongest side they’ll have faced so far this season, but we have to make that count. Either way, the Stormers won’t have to leave South Africa for a URC fixture until the 8th of May 2026 — six months from now — so they’ll be there or thereabouts at the top of the league bar a disastrous run in their derby games, you’d feel. It’s a quirk in the URC schedule that sometimes sees a South African side with front-loaded away games. Usually, it’s better to play a touring side in the middle of their run, rather than at the beginning or the end, unless the team is flying up for one game, as is the case here.
Without their top internationals like Porten, Dixon, Feinberg-Mgomezelu, Willemse, and Reinach, combined with the spot travel, this is a great opportunity to start building that dread factor.
Munster Rugby: 15. Shane Daly; 14. Diarmuid Kilgallen, 13. Tom Farrell, 12. Alex Nankivell, 11. Thaakir Abrahams; 10. Jack Crowley, 9. Craig Casey; 1. Jeremy Loughman, 2. Diarmuid Barron, 3. John Ryan; 4. Tom Ahern, 5. Fineen Wycherley; 6. Tadhg Beirne (c), 7. Jack O’Donoghue, 8. Gavin Coombes.
Replacements: 16. Niall Scannell, 17. Michael Milne, 18. Ronan Foxe, 19. Edwin Edogbo, 20. John Hodnett, 21. Ethan Coughlan, 22. Tony Butler, 23. Dan Kelly.
Stormers: 15. Warrick Gelant; 14. Dylan Maart, 13. Wandisile Simelane, 12. Ruhan Nel, 11. Leolin Zas; 10. Jurie Matthee, 9. Stefan Ungerer; 1. Vernon Matongo, 2. André-Hugo Venter, 3. Neethling Fouche; 4. Salmaan Moerat (c), 5. Connor Evans; 6. Paul De Villiers, 7. Marcel Theunissen, 8. Evan Roos
Replacements: 16. JJ Kotze, 17. Oli Kebble, 18. Sazi Sandi, 19. Adré Smith, 20. JD Schickerling, 21. Ruan Ackerman, 22. Dewaldt Duvenage, 23. Clinton Swart
I had a look at the Stormers’ last five games and tried to get a picture of what they are at the start of 2025/26.
Stormers – 5-Game Snapshot
Scoreboard & 22 Entries
Record: 5 wins from 5
Average scoreline:
- Stormers: 31.4 points for
- Opponents: 7.8 points against
- Average margin: +23.6
22 Entries – Attack
Total entries: 51 → 10.2 per game
Total points from entries: 134.4
Points per entry: 2.64
Total tries: 20 → 4.0 tries per game
Try conversion on entries:
- 0.39 tries per entry
- ≈ 1 try every 2.6 entries
22 Entries – Defence
Entries conceded: 34 → 6.8 per game
Points conceded on entries: 29.7
Points per entry conceded: 0.87
Tries conceded: 4 → 0.8 per game
Try conversion conceded:
- 0.12 tries per entry
- ≈ 1 try every 8.5 entries conceded
Ruck & Linebreak Profile
Stormers Ball
- Total rucks: 300 → 60 per game
- Total linebreaks: 32 → 6.4 per game
- LBR (linebreaks per ruck):
- 0.107 per ruck
- 10.7 linebreaks per 100 rucks
- ≈ 1 linebreak every 9.4 rucks
Opposition Ball
- Total rucks: 371 → 74.2 per game
- Total linebreaks: 18 → 3.6 per game
- LBR conceded:
- 0.0485 per ruck
- 4.9 linebreaks per 100 rucks
- ≈ 1 linebreak every 20.6 rucks
TL; DR: Stormers are generating more than double the opposition’s linebreak rate per ruck and winning the collision/tempo battle on both sides of the ball.
Set-Piece – Lineout
Stormers Lineout (Own Throw)
- v Leinster: 94%
- v Ospreys: 100%
- v Scarlets: 88%
- v Zebre: 100%
- v Benetton: 90%
Average Stormers lineout: 94.4%
They haven’t dropped below 88% in any of the five games.
Opposition Lineout
- Leinster: 75%
- Ospreys: 92%
- Scarlets: 100%
- Zebre: 67%
- Benetton: 82%
Average opposition lineout: 83.2%
General Shape:
Two opponents at sub-80% (Leinster 75, Zebre 67) – points to selective disruption rather than blanket dominance.
Others are solid to excellent (Scarlets at 100%, Ospreys in the 90s), so the Stormers are clearly capable of targeting specific lineouts rather than just mopping up poor systems.
Kicking Profile – Kick to Pass
Reminder: 1:3.0 = one kick per 3 passes (more kicking); 1:8.0 = one kick per 8 passes (more ball-in-hand).
Stormers K:P by Game
- v Leinster: 1:3.7
- v Ospreys: 1:7.9 (most ball-in-hand performance)
- v Scarlets: 1:2.9
- v Zebre: 1:3.1
- v Benetton: 1:2.9
Average Stormers K:P: 1:4.1
Median: 1:3.1 → The typical Stormers game sits in that 1:3-ish band. Away from home in particular — and especially without Willemse and Feinberg-Mgomezelu — I would expect them to kick at a really high volume here.
Opposition K:P
- Leinster: 1:4.8
- Ospreys: 1:5.8
- Scarlets: 1:4.9
- Zebre: 1:3.5
- Benetton: 1:4.9
Average opposition K:P: 1:4.8
Shape: Stormers tend to be slightly more kick-heavy than their opponents on average, but can swing into a much more ball-in-hand shape (Ospreys game) without losing linebreak or entry productivity.
Game-by-Game Snapshot
| Oppo | STO 22 E (PPE – T) | Opp 22 E (PPE – T) | STO rucks/LBs | Opp rucks/ LBs | STO LO | Opp LO | STO K:P | Opp K:P | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lein | 10 (2.6 – 4) | 5 (0.0 – 0) | 68 / 9 (13.2 per 100) | 49 / 5 (10.2 per 100) | 94% | 75% | 1:3.7 | 1:4.8 | |
| Osp | 10 (2.0 – 3) | 7 (1.4 – 2) | 81 / 6 (7.4 per 100) | 82 / 2 (2.4 per 100) | 100% | 92% | 1:7.9 | 1:5.8 | |
| Scar | 9 (3.4 – 5) | 9 (0.0 – 0) | 48 / 5 (10.4 per 100) | 90 / 3 (3.3 per 100) | 88% | 100% | 1:2.9 | 1:4.9 | |
| Zebre | 13 (2.3 – 5) | 10 (1.3 – 1) | 36 / 8 (22.2 per 100) | 70 / 5 (7.1 per 100) | 100% | 67% | 1:3.1 | 1:3.5 | |
| Benn | 9 (3.1 – 3) | 3 (2.3 – 1) | 67 / 4 (6.0 per 100) | 80 / 3 (3.8 per 100) | 90% | 82% | 1:2.9 | 1:4.9 |
Quick Read – What This Says
- Scoreboard: A +23.6 average margin, conceding under 8 points per game and only 4 tries.
- 22 entries: 10.2 entries per game at 2.64 points per entry, while opponents are held to 6.8 entries and 0.87 points per entry.
- Linebreak engine: 10.7 LBs per 100 rucks for Stormers vs 4.9 per 100 conceded – a clear efficiency gap.
- Lineout picture: Opposition average is 83.2%, with two sub-80% games (Leinster 75%, Zebre 67%). That paints Stormers as targeted disruptors rather than just beneficiaries of bad systems.
- Kicking: They generally live in that 1:3–1:4 K:P band, with the flexibility to go more multi-phase when the matchup allows.
The Stormers are really leaning into the new meta of kick pressure/transition and set-piece dominance. They’re almost uniquely built for this exact structure with the players that were already at the club in the last year or two. Sure, the emergence of Feinberg-Mgomezelu as a top-class “do it all” option at #10 helped a ton, but for me, it was the shift towards the game we’re seeing since January of this year and the settling down of the game into the one we know today that has really nailed down what the Stormers have traditionally been quite good at.
Like most of the South African sides, they have an excellent scrum, but they’ve also got a really solid lineout with top quality operators like Theunissen, Moerat and Evans, along with Adre Smith and JD Schickerling. That’s always good to have, whatever the meta, but particularly in the context of what we now see in the 2025/26 game, where there’s more kicking than ever before.
When you combine that with the Stormers’ usual excellence on transition, you have a mix that has blown away every team they’ve faced so far this season.
Their kicking game generates transition, but also a lot of retained possession; they have retained 21% of all their kicks from hand this season so far, which is a really good number when we compare league-wide.
All retention rates and metres per kick are rounded to 1 decimal.
League Averages
- Kicks from hand: 119.9
- Kicks retained: 21.8 (on average per team, not a percentage)
- Retention rate: 18.0%
- Kicking metres: 3109.6
- Metres per kick: 25.9m
| Rank (Kicks) | Team | Kicks | Kicks Retained | Retention % | Kicking Metres | Metres p/Kick | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardiff | 164 | 39 | 23.8 | 3925 | 23.9 | ||
| 2 | Stormers | 152 | 33 | 21.7 | 4196 | 27.6 | ||
| 3 | Connacht | 126 | 16 | 12.7 | 3874 | 30.7 | ||
| 4 | Munster | 123 | 24 | 19.5 | 3204 | 26.0 | ||
| 5 | Lions | 122 | 22 | 18.0 | 3582 | 29.4 | ||
| 5 | Benetton | 122 | 14 | 11.5 | 3371 | 27.6 | ||
| 7 | Leinster | 120 | 25 | 20.8 | 3107 | 25.9 | ||
| 8 | Glasgow | 118 | 24 | 20.3 | 3016 | 25.6 | ||
| 9 | Ospreys | 117 | 21 | 17.9 | 2697 | 23.1 | ||
| 10 | Edinburgh | 115 | 24 | 20.9 | 2700 | 23.5 | ||
| 11 | Dragons | 114 | 19 | 16.7 | 3058 | 26.8 | ||
| 11 | Zebre | 114 | 13 | 11.4 | 2871 | 25.2 | ||
| 11 | Sharks | 114 | 25 | 21.9 | 2518 | 22.1 | ||
| 14 | Bulls | 110 | 16 | 14.5 | 2683 | 24.4 | ||
| 15 | Scarlets | 108 | 18 | 16.7 | 2819 | 26.1 | ||
| 16 | Ulster | 79 | 15 | 19.0 | 2132 | 27.0 |
Nobody kicks longer than them — their transition starter kicks — and if you kick long in return, they have the slashing pace and creativity to pull you apart. When they do kick short, they’re really good at retaining the ball in those moments, which doubles up their momentum. When the kicking forces scrums — on either put in — they’re winning more penalties than anyone else, and when the opposition goes to touch, nobody is retaining the ball at the level they are on their own lineout.
But they’re also really good on defensive transition, where they are winning turnovers at a best-in-league rate.
Using turnovers won per 100 tackles:
- Stormers – 6.23 per 100 (1 every 16.1 tackles)
- Scarlets – 5.83 per 100 (1 every 17.2 tackles)
- Leinster – 5.82 per 100 (1 every 17.2 tackles)
- Lions – 5.59 per 100 (1 every 17.9 tackles)
- Ulster – 5.27 per 100 (1 every 19.0 tackles)
Munster — statistically the best defence in the league this season so far — don’t show up on this metric because while we have a really high tackle completion count, we’re not going for jackal turnovers at the rate we were last season. This shows up in how well we’ve prevented opposition linebreaks so far — we’re staying on our feet and covering lateral ground incredibly well.
Compared to Stormers, we have a very different profile.
| Team | Tackles made | Turnovers won | TO p/100 tackles | Tackles p/turnover |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stormers | 594 | 37 | 6.23 | 16.1 |
| Munster | 886 | 34 | 3.84 | 26.1 |
Those ratios show;
Stormers = high-event, jackal-heavy defence – they try to turn contact into immediate possession swings. They kick the ball away more than almost anyone else and longer, and then try to really pressure teams who attack them back in transition on the floor.
Munster = low-event, system-heavy defence – we focus on making our tackles and playing lots of sets, and only pick our breakdown shots selectively.
When we break down the league on these numbers, a few different patterns show up.
Baseline: what we’re comparing
Tackles per turnover (defence):
- League average ≈ 23.3 tackles per turnover
- Fewer = more jackal-heavy (more steals for the same tackle load)
- More = more system-based (fewer steals, more sets defended)
Kicking profile (attack/territory):
- League average kicks from hand ≈ 120
- League average metres per kick ≈ 25.9m
So we’re basically asking: who kicks a lot/far and then also attacks the breakdown? vs who kicks a lot but just defends in structure?
The “kick and jackal” merchants
These teams kick a lot and/or kick long and are very good at turning tackles into steals:
Stormers, Lions, Leinster (plus Cardiff just below that tier)
Stormers
- Kicks: 152 (2nd-most)
- Metres per kick: 27.6m (long)
- Tackles per turnover: 16.1 (best in URC)
➜ They bomb the ball downfield and then win it back more often than anyone else. Classic “bomb + jackal” team.
Lions
- Kicks: 122
- Metres per kick: 29.4m (2nd-longest)
- Tackles per turnover: 17.9
➜ Another long-kicking, high-jackal side. Lots of distance, lots of chaos, lots of turnovers.
Leinster
- Kicks: 120 (around average volume)
- Metres per kick: 25.9m
- Tackles per turnover: 17.2
➜ Not as extreme in distance, but similar model: decent volume + aggressive breakdown.
Cardiff
- Kicks: 164 (most in league)
- Metres per kick: 23.9m (shorter, more contestables)
- Tackles per turnover: 21.7 (better than average)
➜ High volume of mostly shorter, pressure kicks, with a slightly above-average jackal rate on top of an elite tackle system.
Takeaway:
There’s a clear “kick and hunt” cluster: Stormers, Lions, Leinster (and to a lesser extent Cardiff).
They kick a lot (and often long), and they back that up by attacking the breakdown hard, trying to turn those defensive sets into instant possession swings.
The “kick and system defend” teams (our group)
These sides kick a lot and often quite far, but their tackles per turnover are lower than average – they don’t chase the jackal in the same way.
Munster, Connacht, Benetton (and to a degree Dragons)
Munster
- Kicks: 123 (above average)
- Metres per kick: 26.0m (slightly long)
- Tackles per turnover: 26.1 (below-average steal rate)
Connacht
- Kicks: 126
- Metres per kick: 30.7m (longest in the league)
- Tackles per turnover: 26.7
Benetton
- Kicks: 122
- Metres per kick: 27.6m
- Tackles per turnover: 25.0
What they have in common:
- All three are high-volume, longish kickers.
- All three sit on the wrong side of the league average for steals (more than 23.3 tackles per turnover).
So the pattern is:
This group uses the boot to play in the right areas, but once the opponent has the ball, they defend in structure rather than constantly hunting jackals.
For Munster specifically:
High-volume, decent-distance kicking + elite tackle accuracy + low-ish jackal intensity = a side that wants lots of defensive sets in the right areas, not constant breakdown roulette.
Low-volume kickers with high jackal intensity
You also get a smaller cluster that doesn’t kick much but is highly jackal-driven when they are defending:
- Scarlets: 108 kicks, 26.1m per kick, 17.2 tackles per turnover
- Ulster: 79 kicks, 27.0m per kick, 19.0 tackles per turnover
These look like more ball-in-hand, phase-heavy teams that rely on jackal wins as a defensive weapon rather than territory-first kicking.
The outliers & “nothing much happening” profiles
Sharks, Bulls, Zebre:
- Kicks: middling
- Metres per kick: average or short (Sharks especially)
- Tackles per turnover: 30+ tackles per steal
➜ Neither big kickers nor big jackal teams – they don’t exploit any synergy between kicking and breakdown pressure.
Glasgow & Edinburgh & Ospreys:
- Mostly around average in all three variables.
➜ No strong “kick + jackal” or “kick + system” bias; just balanced.
What actually shows up?
So, when we link tackles per turnover to kicking volume and distance:
-
There’s no tight linear relationship – long kicking or high volume doesn’t automatically mean more steals.
-
But there are clear strategy clusters:
-
Stormers / Lions / Leinster (+Cardiff)
Territory via the boot + high jackal rate → they want chaos and transition.
-
Munster / Connacht / Benetton
Territory via the boot + low jackal rate → they want structure, repeated sets, and low-error defence.
-
Scarlets / Ulster
Less kicking + high jackal rate → more ball-in-hand, but they rely on poaching when they do have to defend.
-
So, essentially, Stormers are a kick-and-hunt chaos team — long kicks, lots of jackal, while Munster are a kick-and-grind system team — similar volume of kicking, similar distance, but far fewer breakdown shots and way more trust in their tackle system.
What Does A Munster Win Look Like?
If we strip all the jargon away, the picture is pretty simple. Both teams are very good at getting into the opposition’s 22. Stormers average just over ten visits a game, and Munster are just behind them. The difference is what happens when they get there. Stormers are turning their visits into points slightly more often than Munster, so if the game is played on “normal” terms, Stormers are likely to squeeze more out of a similar number of chances. For Munster, the attacking job is to keep creating that same volume of entries but be a little more ruthless when we arrive – closer to three points every second or third visit, not a string of long, empty trips.
On the other side of the ball, the numbers are more stark. Stormers hardly give teams anything in their own 22 – they’ve only conceded four tries across five games, and opponents are averaging under a point per visit. Munster have improved a lot defensively compared to last season, but we still concede nearly two points per entry and a try about once every three visits. So one of the big tasks in this game is dragging Stormers down from that “almost nothing conceded” level and pushing our own red-zone defence further in the right direction. If Stormers are allowed to keep defending at their season standard, they’ll be very hard to shift.
The key is in our kicking game.
If we look at every game they’ve won, the Stormers have kicked more than their opponents. You might say that kicking almost everything they kick at you is the way to go, but it’s not as simple as that.
Let’s plug the profiles back in:
Stormers:
- Kick a lot already (152, 2nd-most).
- Kick long (27.6m/kick).
- Best jackal side in the league – 1 turnover every ~16 tackles.
- Super clinical when they get broken-field or turnover ball (4.03 pts per clean break).
Munster:
- Already high-volume kickers (123).
- Kick slightly long (26.0m/kick).
- Elite tackle system, but below-average steal rate (1 turnover every 26 tackles).
- Create lots of dents and breaks, but don’t convert them as ruthlessly as Stormers.
If we ramp our kicking up to a bigger number than Stormers, we risk three things:
We take the ball away from one of our strengths.
Munster are top-5 for defenders beaten and clean breaks. If we go ultra-kick heavy, we stop giving our carry game enough goes at Stormers’ defence.
We feed Stormers’ favourite game state.
Long, frequent kicking → more broken-field, more unstructured sets → the exact spots where:
- Their jackal threat is at its most dangerous, and
- Their linebreak → points efficiency is better than ours.
We turn it into a 50/50 chaos game they’re built for.
Stormers are a “kick and hunt” side: long kicks + high jackal intensity. Munster are “kick and grind”: big defensive engine, low jackal rate.
If we blow the kicking volume out, we tilt towards their chaos model, not our system model.
What should Munster do with the boot?
Not kick way more — but slightly above our current norm, and very deliberately targeted:
Keep the volume high-ish, but front-load it in your own half.
- In exit/own 3rd: kick earlier in the sequence (before 2–3 rucks) to:
- starve their jackals of nice long defensive sets,
- play the game in their half, where our tackle system is comfortable
- Kick any transition starter back to them where we can’t release either Kilgallen or Abrahams within one pass under <10 metres.
Tilt towards contestables and grass, not endless long bombs.
- We don’t want a 40–50m ping-pong where Gelant/Zas are picking their counter-kick or running back.
- More: 25–30m contestables onto their wings, back-field seams, or grass that forces them to turn and play from touchlines. We want Gelant, Zas and Maart turning and kicking under pressure.
In their half, we should kick less, not more.
- This is where our carry/ruck game is actually an advantage: we win collisions, create breaks. They are dangerous over the ball, but if we keep that forward structure tight, there could be soft penalties on offer.
- If we just keep hoofing it up for contestables here, we never test their multi-phase defence, and we deny ourselves the chance to fix our “points per clean break” problem.
Use the boot to control where we defend, not how often.
- We’re happy defending lots of sets – our tackle success is elite.
- We just want those sets 40+ metres from our line, with our back-field set and minimal transition ball.
Munster shouldn’t try to out-Stormer the Stormers and kick “way more” – we should kick smart rather than kick at raw volume, using the boot to pin them in, deny them turnover chaos, and then use our forward platform game in the right parts of the field.
