The Schedule

The Grind

By Tom Savage3 min read

Well, that was tense.

Munster just about edged past a dogged Connacht side in Thomond Park, to go 5/5 with two interpros out of the way. What was even more pleasing was that we got this win against a team that (a) loaded up on our scouted weaknesses last season, (b) played on the back foot all night and (c) spoiled our lineout and breakdown all night.

Just like Connacht and Edinburgh, we found a way to win even when playing against a team that specialises in our weak spots, with a referee* who specialises in away wins.

* To clarify, Andrea Piardi has the highest away team winning record in world rugby over the last three years, so it’s a Piardi in general thing, rather than a Piardi and Munster thing

So, where does this leave us? This 17–15 win moves us to 23 points from 5 (PPG 4.60), level with the Stormers at the top of the URC and second on points difference.

Record: 5–0–0, 3 try-bonus wins, points diff +36.

The Strength of Schedule Ledger

As always, I grade each game based on the opponent’s tier list, which is calculated using last season’s table, balanced with their current form and team strength. Then I add in the venue — home or away — and then compare the return to a “plan” score I laid out at the start of the season.

  • R1 Scarlets (A, C-tier): plan 4 → got 5 (+1)
  • R2 Cardiff (H, C): plan 4 → 4 (0)
  • R3 Edinburgh (H, B): plan 4 → 5 (+1)
  • R4 Leinster (A, A+): plan 1 → 5 (+4)
  • R5 Connacht (H, B): plan 4 → 4 (0)

Cumulative buffer: +6 vs plan (planned 17, actual 23).

Translation: Round 5 was “on plan.” We keep every bit of the +6 cushion created at Croke Park.

What 23 points from 5 means for the run-in (13 games left)

Updated targets (we nudged the home-QF band slightly higher this season due to Leinster’s bad start):

  • Playoffs safe (≈52–55): need 29–32 → 2.23–2.46 ppg.
  • Home QF (≈61–66): need 38–43 → 2.92–3.31 ppg.
  • Top-2 (≈68–72): need 45–49 → 3.46–3.77 ppg.

We’re comfortably ahead of home-QF pace as the table currently stands; top-2 is live if we average ~3.5 ppg from here.

Bonus-point & Points Difference economics

TBPs: 3 from 5. Sustainable season ask now = 7–8 TBPs; we need 4–5 more across 13 games. Ring-fence the obvious harvests (Dragons H, Zebre H) and be opportunistic elsewhere.

Points difference: level on points but trailing Stormers (and Glasgow) on points difference (PD). Target +40–50 PD across banker home games to protect seeding in a likely 2–6 squeeze, and we’ll have a degree of comfort by the time our Red Zone run between January and the end of March is over.

The next block (Rounds 6–8) — expectations

Schedule: Stormers (home, A+) → Ospreys (away, C) → Leinster (home, A+).

  • Baseline Plan: 4 + 4 + 4 = 12 → 35 after 8.
  • Stretch Plan: add 1–2 TBPs (likely @Ospreys and/or vs Stormers H) → 14–15 from the block → 37–38 after 8.
  • How to play it:
    • Stormers (H): statement opportunity; 4 is fine, 5 is a top-2 accelerant.
    • Ospreys (A): manage the game; chase the TBP only if control and bench impact allow.
    • Leinster (H): deny their BP at minimum; a 5 flips the calculus for the rest of the season. Our plan was always to beat Leinster in Thomond Park, and that hasn’t changed post-Croke Park.

Season geometry remains the same

The Red Zone still sits at R11–R14 (Glasgow A → Zebre H → Sharks A → Bulls A). Our +6 buffer means one slip there won’t knock us off home-QF pace — provided we bank the two Italian/Welsh home “must wins” with enough points difference to count as an effective extra match point come the end of the season.

Bottom line

The Connacht result was a workmanlike four-pointer — exactly on plan — and we keep a healthy +6 cushion on our model. At 23 points from 5 games, we’re tracking a home quarter-final without needing heroics on the road in the second half of the season; maintain ~3.1–3.3 ppg and we’ll land ~62–65.

Add a statement five against one of the A+ opponents at home, harvest PD in the banker games, and top-2 becomes a probability rather than a possibility.