Munster’s depth chart at #9 is, like last season, pretty set in stone barring injury. In some ways, it’s the least interesting squad chart we have because there is only one active question.

And that question is – is this the year that Craig Casey takes over as the 1A scrumhalf ahead of Conor Murray for most big games?

Last season I wrote the following ahead of the impending Murray contract discussion with the IRFU;

We cannot disentangle Murray’s advancement to veteran status and a proposed central contract extension from Casey’s development as a guy that Munster will look to become their primary scrumhalf in the next two seasons. There are budgetary reasons for this too. Ideally, Munster would love to move from central contract to central contract when it comes to Murray and Casey. Suppose Murray, for example, signs a one-year central contract deal to take him up to the 2023 World Cup with the idea that he would slide into a 1A/1B veteran role with Casey gradually taking more Champions Cup and other Category 1 games as the starter. In that case, you could time Murray’s transition post-World Cup to France/England with Casey ascending onto a central contract deal, if he continues to perform for Ireland this season and next.

Would that interest Murray? One could reasonably ask what more he has to do in Ireland, perhaps bar winning another trophy with Munster. He’s gone on three Lions tours, he’s beaten the All Blacks, he’s won tours in Australia, he’s won Six Nations and Grand Slams, he’s 11 caps away from 100 – look, I think if he makes four World Cups, joining O’Driscoll, Best and O’Connell, he won’t have much left to achieve here and could ride out for a two or three-year stint abroad for some additional cash post-retirement.

My working theory was that a deal up to the 2023 World Cup made the most amount of sense for Murray and Munster but just before Christmas it was announced that Murray had signed a new two-year central contract with the IRFU that would take him up to the end of the season post-World Cup. What’s the difference between a deal up to the World Cup and a deal to the end of the season post-World Cup? Not much, really, but ask Leinster how they’ll be feeling at the end of next season knowing (for now) that Sexton won’t be back after the tournament unless he changes his mind about when he retires.

For Munster, I suppose the key part of Murray’s next two years is usage. Last season, Murray only started one game of consequence for Ireland and that was arguably our least important – Argentina on the last weekend of the Autumn Nations Cup. He played 10 games, started one and played an average of 17 minutes for Ireland.

For Munster, however, Murray started every single game of consequence. He started all 7 Champions Cup games, he started both interpros against Leinster and he started the quarter-final against Ulster. All in all, Murray played an average of 56 minutes a game for Munster last season, down from 61 the season before and 65 the season before that.

From a raw starts percentage for Ireland, Murray has dropped from starting 92% of his games for Ireland in 2019/20, to starting 57% in 2020/21, to starting just 10% last season. His Munster starts have not followed the same dips season on season, even if they are decreasing overall.

• 2019/20 – 91% starter
• 2020/21 – 80% starter (-11%)
• 2021/22 – 85% starter (+4%)

While Jamison Gibson-Park has completely overtaken Murray as the #1 scrumhalf for Ireland the same chart change hasn’t happened in Munster. Conor Murray, as of last season, was still Munster’s #1 when it came to every single game of consequence. His minutes are going down – which is usually the sign of someone getting cycled out – but that was not followed by a change in status. It’s almost as if the coaching staff were in two minds about making the same switch that Farrell made at Ireland. Maybe their hands were tied by central contracts and instructions from Farrell to play Murray with his other bench option, Joey Carbery, but maybe Van Graan and Larkham were reluctant to make a switch away from the ultimate comfort blanket player in a real sense.

Conor Murray is the best scrumhalf that Ireland has ever produced, in my opinion. Maybe that won’t always be the case but as of now, nobody has a record that even comes close. He is considered a calming onfield presence but towards the end of last season, few players represented Munster’s slide into confused, ditherball better than Murray.

Where he would usually be accurate and imposing, he was instead sloppy and indecisive. Where he would normally be dominant and calming, he was instead a part of a feedback loop between himself and Carbery where they seemed to actively make each other worse.

This was during key games at the business end of the season. Both Murray and Carbery are excellent players but Murray seemed to tire during games and, worse again, the structural issues that saw him start only one of the Lions’ tests against South Africa behind Ali Price.

At a very basic level, Gatland’s Lions needed more pace, breaking threats around the ruck and tempo to make their overall attacking scheme work. That wasn’t Conor Murray’s game in 2021, and he paid the price from a selection perspective despite being named as the tour captain earlier in the tour. It wasn’t his game during 2021/22 either and it’s why he was rotated out as a starter by Farrell and Catt for Ireland almost overnight. 57% starts to 10% starts – that says something.

Of course, his defensive excellence was still present throughout the season but that wasn’t enough for Warren Gatland & Gregor Townsend for the Lions or for Farrell & Catt for Ireland.

For Van Graan & Larkham at Munster, it wasn’t a problem.

I get it, to a certain extent. Murray is an all-time great and one of the few “best in his position anywhere in the world” guys that Van Graan could call on during his tenure but it really did feel as if Munster misused Murray last season, both practically and stylistically. We spoke about playing with pace but then opted to start Murray for every single Champions Cup when he isn’t selected to start for Ireland’s high-pace system.

It’s like talking about running a 100m sprint but bringing your hiking boots. Hiking boots have a purpose, and you’re damn glad of them when the slope gets steep enough, but they don’t suit what you initially set out to do. I think a good result for Munster this season would be to utilise Murray for Munster in the same way that he’s used for Ireland – as a closer. Who better? Who has more experience? Who has a calmer head? Who has more high-level minutes under his belt than an 8-test-cap Lion and a 99-cap Irish international?  Use Murray as a 20-25 minute closer and, for me, the perception around him changes instantly along with his practical value to Munster in big games.

For me, Craig Casey should probably already be the 1A scrumhalf at Munster. He’s not the finished article as of yet for sure – no scrumhalf is at 23, not even Antoine Dupont – but it was around this age (22-23) that Conor Murray made his step up as Munster’s #1 scrumhalf and I think Casey is more than ready.

For Munster, it’ll be a difficult balancing act – in theory – and it’ll reflect the approach of the coaches and the implementation of the system we want to play. Munster have repeatedly spoken about “speed” and “training faster” this off-season and, with what appears to be a 3-3-1 attacking shape, Craig Casey would appear to be a perfect stylistic fit.

He’s quick over the ground, is the fastest and most accurate passer on the island and if he can add a true breaking threat to his game, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be starting big games this season.

This is complicated by Casey’s expiring contract. If Munster wants to sign Casey to a new deal – and they really do, to the point where they tried an early extension last season – I don’t think it’ll be a formality, especially if everything stays the same as last season when it comes to the scale of the games Casey starts. He played 898 minutes last season compared to Murray’s 725 but when it came to minutes in the big games, there was no comparison.

Casey wants to play, he wants to start big games for Munster and then, as a result, start big games for Ireland.

He’ll need to see that he’s signing a new deal as a guy who’ll start 50% of the big games for Munster this season. As a player currently third in the national depth chart, Casey is in a really valuable spot to the coaching team. Coaches love having a useful #3 because it means you’re not sweating injuries in the two-man jerseys (1-17, 2-16, 3-18, 9-21, 10-22) but the third man in the chart can find themselves frustrated if both starting/finishing incumbents at test level are rarely injured, at least over the last season and the head coach isn’t rotating much beyond the set matchday squad.

Casey played two test games in 2021/22 as a replacement. Both of those games were rotation minutes for Gibson-Park and Murray.

The other 10 games had Gibson-Park and Murray playing a 65/15 split consistently from the Autumn Nations Cup through the Six Nations through to the Summer Tour. Casey will not break up that duopoly by closing games behind Conor Murray, and Casey wants to break up that duopoly. Players that are third in the national chart are usually the ones most at risk of getting a hefty offer to play abroad for two or three years and that’s a real risk here, in my opinion, if there isn’t on-field progression to go with the talk about what might happen at some point in a Murray-less future, it’ll be a difficult deal to do.

For me, Munster should be offering Casey a two-year – preferably a three-year – deal this season with a view to becoming the 1A guy in practicality during 2022/23 but definitely next season post-2023 World Cup. Casey’s performances last year were really good, on the whole. He had an average star rating of 3.6 over his 18 eligible Munster games with two five-star performances and nine four-star games.

The handover from Murray to Casey – if that is to happen, which we presume it is – probably should have happened with more of a 50/50 split of Champions Cup games last season so that just increases the urgency of the need to do so this season and, likely, also influences the severity of the change.

Barring injury or overt IRFU instruction, I would expect to see Casey start at least two of Munster’s four European pool games and one of the Leinster interpros. That should be the start needed to get contract business done nice and early.

This settling of 1A and 1B is the biggest talking point when it comes to scrumhalf.

I’ve had a few questions as to why Munster have four senior scrumhalves and two academy players for this season and it’s directly to do with Murray and Casey’s load with the Irish national side.

Neil Cronin was the archetypical experienced squad cover scrumhalf last season, racking up 11 appearances total with five starts for an average of 34 minutes a game and 377 minutes total. Cronin will be 30 by the turn of the year and he’s out of contract so his future at the club, in my opinion, hinges on how Ethan Coughlan does this season.

If Coughlan looks like he’s capable of playing between 200/300 minutes this season, then Cronin will find it very difficult to get a contract, in my opinion. Paddy Patterson, who’s looked pretty decent for Munster during his brief cameos last season and during the recent preseason, looks set to be the incumbent third man in the chart this season after signing a two-year deal out of Y3 in the academy. Patterson has a real upside, in my opinion, and is almost a perfect representation of the Winger #9 roleset. His pass quality – accuracy + consistency – is a worry but he’s so dangerous around the ruck and as a support runner that it balances out. In a high-tempo 3-3-1 structure, Patterson has the opportunity to flourish as a starter or as a finisher capable of turning up the heat on a tiring opponent. He’s definitely one to watch.

Jack Oliver, the 19-year-old year one academy, is someone I think has a proper future and strong AIL showings and A-game performances could put him in the frame for a bench appearance later in the season once he beds in.

Priority 1: Important player to be replaced by the end of the season.
Priority 2: Important player to be replaced within two seasons
Priority 3: Important player to be replaced within three seasons
Core 1: Important first-choice player with at least four seasons of peak performance remaining.
Squad 2: Squad player in peak age that likely has four+ seasons of high performance in a down-the-chart position.
Foundation Player: Young talent (20-24) expected to play for five + seasons and transition to Core 1.
Potential Foundation: Talent ID’d young player (18-23) that has the potential to ascend to regular first-team exposure as a Core 1 or Squad 2 type player.
Assess 1: A player that will need to be assessed for role suitability and depth chart position across the upcoming season with a view to their future usage or contract.

	Player Role	Age Jan 1 2023	Grade	Contract Year?
Conor Murray	CONTROLLER #9	33	CORE 1/PRIORITY 1	NO
Craig Casey	TEMPO #9/CONTROLLER #9	23	CORE 1	YES
Neil Cronin	FLY HALF	30	ASSESS 1	YES
Paddy Patterson	TEMPO #9/WINGER #9	24	SQUAD 2	NO
Ethan Coughlan (A)	TEMPO #9/WINGER #9	20	ASSESS 1	YES
Jack Oliver (A)	TEMPO #9	19	ASSESS 1	YES